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I wonder if this is actually bad for the US. I don't know enough about US demographics, but it seems that it has long run on an assumption of near-constant immi

I wonder if this is actually bad for the US. I don't know enough about US demographics, but it seems that it has long run on an assumption of near-constant immigration or desire to immigrate. If that dynamic changes, or starts to change, I wonder what the effect on US demographics/culture/etc. will be.

WildUtah 11y ago
The Mexicans that have stopped coming and started returning are more than replaced by Guatemalans, Salvadorans, and Hondurans that have started arriving in much greater numbers. Mexico's fertility rate is down to replacement level and the country won't be sending more. Guatemala is packing 16MM people into a place the size of Maine, half of it malarial jungle and half volcanic mountaintop. The fertility rate is 4.0, setting population to double every generation. Honduras and El Salvador aren't far behind. Those Central American countries are desperately poor with illiterate majorities, the world's highest murder rates, and low educational attainment. Nearly half of Guatemalans don't even speak fluent Spanish. Meanwhile Mexico is a well educated nation on the verge of first world incomes. So the quality of migrants is not looking up. But the quantity certainly is.
- greggyb 11y ago
  Yes, the quality of those human beings is certainly lower. /sarcasm Ninja edit for sarcasm tag.
- dragonwriter 11y ago
  > The Mexicans that have stopped coming and started returning are more than replaced by Guatemalans, Salvadorans, and Hondurans that have started arriving in much greater numbers. Citation needed on the "more than replaced" claim.
- thehoff 11y ago
  It looks like the replacement you're talking about is actually not true. The numbers that are immigrating is declining across the board. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/15/the-impact-of-slowing-immigration-foreign-born-share-falls-among-14-largest-us-hispanic-origin-groups/ http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/15/the-impact-of-slowing-...
  - DrScump 11y ago
    Did you read your own link? I think you made a conclusion that isn't in the data, unless I'm misreading something: "Among all Latinos, there were 14.1 million immigrants in 2000. By 2005, that number reached 16.8 million, and by 2013, there were 19 million Latino immigrants in the U.S." Even in the down-economy period (2005-2013), there was a net increase. And those numbers exclude their US-born children.
    - thehoff 11y ago
      I did read it. But maybe I'm misinterpreting. The same pattern is present among all Latino origin groups, though for three—Ecuadorians, Mexicans and Nicaraguans—the number of immigrants has declined since 2010 (for details, see Appendix Table A2). The foreign-born share of Salvadorans, for example, fell from 76% in 2000 to 59% in 2013—the largest percentage point decline of any of the six largest Hispanic origin groups. Similarly, Dominicans, Guatemalans, and Colombians all had decreases of over 13 percentage points in their foreign-born shares over the same period. Mexicans, the nation’s largest Hispanic origin group, also saw a decline, though it was only 8 percentage points since 2000.
      - deleted 11y ago
        [deleted]
thehoff 11y ago
About half way through this one you can get a small glimpse into what the public generally thinks. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wave-brings-59-million-to-u-s-driving-population-growth-and-change-through-2065/ http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wav...

WildUtah 11y ago

The Mexicans that have stopped coming and started returning are more than replaced by Guatemalans, Salvadorans, and Hondurans that have started arriving in much greater numbers. Mexico's fertility rate is down to replacement level and the country won't be sending more. Guatemala is packing 16MM people into a place the size of Maine, half of it malarial jungle and half volcanic mountaintop. The fertility rate is 4.0, setting population to double every generation. Honduras and El Salvador aren't far behind. Those Central American countries are desperately poor with illiterate majorities, the world's highest murder rates, and low educational attainment. Nearly half of Guatemalans don't even speak fluent Spanish. Meanwhile Mexico is a well educated nation on the verge of first world incomes. So the quality of migrants is not looking up. But the quantity certainly is.

greggyb 11y ago
Yes, the quality of those human beings is certainly lower. /sarcasm Ninja edit for sarcasm tag.
dragonwriter 11y ago
> The Mexicans that have stopped coming and started returning are more than replaced by Guatemalans, Salvadorans, and Hondurans that have started arriving in much greater numbers. Citation needed on the "more than replaced" claim.
thehoff 11y ago
It looks like the replacement you're talking about is actually not true. The numbers that are immigrating is declining across the board. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/15/the-impact-of-slowing-immigration-foreign-born-share-falls-among-14-largest-us-hispanic-origin-groups/ http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/15/the-impact-of-slowing-...
- DrScump 11y ago
  Did you read your own link? I think you made a conclusion that isn't in the data, unless I'm misreading something: "Among all Latinos, there were 14.1 million immigrants in 2000. By 2005, that number reached 16.8 million, and by 2013, there were 19 million Latino immigrants in the U.S." Even in the down-economy period (2005-2013), there was a net increase. And those numbers exclude their US-born children.
  - thehoff 11y ago
    I did read it. But maybe I'm misinterpreting. The same pattern is present among all Latino origin groups, though for three—Ecuadorians, Mexicans and Nicaraguans—the number of immigrants has declined since 2010 (for details, see Appendix Table A2). The foreign-born share of Salvadorans, for example, fell from 76% in 2000 to 59% in 2013—the largest percentage point decline of any of the six largest Hispanic origin groups. Similarly, Dominicans, Guatemalans, and Colombians all had decreases of over 13 percentage points in their foreign-born shares over the same period. Mexicans, the nation’s largest Hispanic origin group, also saw a decline, though it was only 8 percentage points since 2000.
    - deleted 11y ago
      [deleted]

thehoff 11y ago

About half way through this one you can get a small glimpse into what the public generally thinks. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wave-brings-59-million-to-u-s-driving-population-growth-and-change-through-2065/ http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wav...