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It's risky to draw too many conclusions from Square. Jack Dorsey's situation is unique; it's hard to think of an example before (or ever again?) where a CEO dec
by jusben1369 11y ago
It's risky to draw too many conclusions from Square. Jack Dorsey's situation is unique; it's hard to think of an example before (or ever again?) where a CEO decides to take on another CEO position of a struggling company weeks before an IPO. Think what you will about his capabilities but it was always going to create real drag on their IPO; if only because there wasn't enough time to know if he can pull it off.
One thing that is rarely discussed is how bubbles burst. Stock markets have incredible visibility and liquidity so they'll burst in a matter of days (minutes?) and weeks. Housing markets have strong visibility but less liquidity so they're measured in weeks and months. Private valuations have poor visibility ("show me a valuation and I'll tell you the terms") and very poor liquidity; IPO'ing, being acquired are rare and difficult events.
So if there was indeed a bubble it was in the private capital markets and the only way we'd know is when those companies leave that market for another market (public market/acquisition by company) There are so many variables but right now Square is telling us that the private markets were overinflating prices by at least 50%. That's bubble stuff. The thing is it'll be a slower/gentler correction due to the above issues.