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>Japan has not grown significantly in the past 20 years and it won't grow again. You mean, Japan won't grow again this year? Or ever? Interestingly, back in

>Japan has not grown significantly in the past 20 years and it won't grow again. You mean, Japan won't grow again this year? Or ever? Interestingly, back in the 1980s, we Americans thought Japan was going to take over in every market: automotive manufacturing, high tech and consumer electronics, software, even space travel eventually. They were buying up iconic American properties like Rockefeller Center, and Japanese culture was all the rage. Then something strange happened in the '90s: the Internet. Suddenly the Americans (and some Europeans) roared back into first place and left Japan just idling by the side of the road. It was a remarkable turnaround. By the same token, I would expect Japan eventually to bounce back from its current doldrums. China is a huge challenge to Japanese manufacturers, but they are still incredibly clever and innovative. Their aging population may do a number on that innovation, though; a new baby boom is probably their best hope.

raverbashing 11y ago
Yes, Japan will grow again if it finds a way to expand productivity in one sector. You're right about Japan getting behind after the internet. I guess their way of working is not compatible with the velocity demanded by this new field. Can you imagine Salaryman getting the latest on the new Angular.js version? (or even JS for that matter?)
gotchange 11y ago
I think that the Plaza Accord had its toll on the Japanese economy and only benefited the Americans and Europeans. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord
- eru 11y ago
  Did it help the Germans?
crdoconnor 11y ago
>Interestingly, back in the 1980s, we Americans thought Japan was going to take over in every market: automotive manufacturing, high tech and consumer electronics, software, even space travel eventually. They were buying up iconic American properties like Rockefeller Center, and Japanese culture was all the rage. > >Then something strange happened in the '90s: the Internet. The Internet had nothing to do with it. Japan was simply in the midst of a titanic property bubble which subsequently popped: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble
- InclinedPlane 11y ago
  That's only a part of it. Between 1960 and 1985 Japan's per capita GDP quintupled (even adjusting for inflation). That huge economic growth on the back of a strong manufacturing and high-technology base made Japan seem like it had unstoppable economic momentum. But, of course, it didn't. Japan's economy is still very large and very advanced but it stopped growing and hasn't been able to keep up with innovation in the rest of the world.
  - crdoconnor 11y ago
    >That's only a part of it. Between 1960 and 1985 Japan's per capita GDP quintupled Yeah, and a lot of that was phony growth caused by debt and unsustainable asset price rises.
graeme 11y ago
I think OP meant that, given the shrinking population, total GDP won't grow, even if per capita GDP does. People routinely conflate GDP growth and GDP per capita growth. For example, US GDP growth seems high relative to other rich countries because the US has more immigration and a higher birth rate. This leads to more GDP, though not necessarily GDP per capita. So, Japan could actually get richer (per person) as their economy shrinks. This also means that defining recession only in total GDP terms may be misleading.

raverbashing 11y ago

Yes, Japan will grow again if it finds a way to expand productivity in one sector. You're right about Japan getting behind after the internet. I guess their way of working is not compatible with the velocity demanded by this new field. Can you imagine Salaryman getting the latest on the new Angular.js version? (or even JS for that matter?)

gotchange 11y ago

I think that the Plaza Accord had its toll on the Japanese economy and only benefited the Americans and Europeans. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord

eru 11y ago
Did it help the Germans?

crdoconnor 11y ago

>Interestingly, back in the 1980s, we Americans thought Japan was going to take over in every market: automotive manufacturing, high tech and consumer electronics, software, even space travel eventually. They were buying up iconic American properties like Rockefeller Center, and Japanese culture was all the rage. > >Then something strange happened in the '90s: the Internet. The Internet had nothing to do with it. Japan was simply in the midst of a titanic property bubble which subsequently popped: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

InclinedPlane 11y ago
That's only a part of it. Between 1960 and 1985 Japan's per capita GDP quintupled (even adjusting for inflation). That huge economic growth on the back of a strong manufacturing and high-technology base made Japan seem like it had unstoppable economic momentum. But, of course, it didn't. Japan's economy is still very large and very advanced but it stopped growing and hasn't been able to keep up with innovation in the rest of the world.
- crdoconnor 11y ago
  >That's only a part of it. Between 1960 and 1985 Japan's per capita GDP quintupled Yeah, and a lot of that was phony growth caused by debt and unsustainable asset price rises.

graeme 11y ago

I think OP meant that, given the shrinking population, total GDP won't grow, even if per capita GDP does. People routinely conflate GDP growth and GDP per capita growth. For example, US GDP growth seems high relative to other rich countries because the US has more immigration and a higher birth rate. This leads to more GDP, though not necessarily GDP per capita. So, Japan could actually get richer (per person) as their economy shrinks. This also means that defining recession only in total GDP terms may be misleading.