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This cycle of hype is extremely similar to what's going on with mobile advertising on Facebook. It's described pretty clearly in one of Evan Spiegel's "leaked"
by eggie 11y ago
This cycle of hype is extremely similar to what's going on with mobile advertising on Facebook. It's described pretty clearly in one of Evan Spiegel's "leaked" emails from 2013:
> Facebook has continued to perform in the market despite declining user engagement and pullback of brand advertising dollars -- largely due to mobile advertising performance - especially App Install advertisements. This is a huge red flag because it indicates that sustainable brand dollars have not yet moved to Facebook mobile platform and mobile revenue growth has been driven by technology companies (many of which are VC funded). VC dollars are being spent on user acquisition despite unknown LTV of users - a recipe for disaster. This props up Facebook share price and continues to justify VC investment in technology products based on abnormally large mkt cap companies (i.e. "If this company attracts just 5% of users that FB has, it will be HUGE" - fuels spend on user acquisition as user growth is tied to values). When the market for tech stocks cools, Facebook market cap will plummet, access to capital for unproven businesses will become inaccessible, and ad spend on user acquisition will rapidly decrease - compounding problems for Facebook and driving stock even lower.
(http://businessinsider.com/snapchat-ceo-on-tech-bubble-and-facebook-overvaluation-2014-12 http://businessinsider.com/snapchat-ceo-on-tech-bubble-and-f...)
I can't help but think of Marc Andreessen's recent liquidation of 3/4 of his Facebook stock: http://businessinsider.com/marc-andreessen-selling-facebook-stock-2015-11 http://businessinsider.com/marc-andreessen-selling-facebook-.... Despite a stellar revenue report it looks like all is not right in the Faceland.