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If one mentally redefines what a "car" will become, it can inform (and also mislead) predictions. Several industry writers have jokingly observed that a car li
by jasode 11y ago
If one mentally redefines what a "car" will become, it can inform (and also mislead) predictions.
Several industry writers have jokingly observed that a car like Tesla is really a "laptop with wheels".
If we extend that reframing to say that future cars are really "robots with wheels", it doesn't look so preposterous that Tesla, Google[1], and Apple (rumoured self-driving car) could dominate Ford, GM, Toyota, etc. It seems possible that a 75% or more of a future car's R&D costs will be the sensors + computer algorithms + petabytes of cloud data integration instead of things like the tires, paint formulations, suspensions, etc.
To riff on a phrase from CEO Reed Hastings, "The Goal Is to Become HBO Faster Than HBO Can Become Us" ... it seems reasonable for Tesla/Google/Apple to acquire competencies in assembling chassis with wheels faster than Ford/GM/Toyota to acquire competitive knowledge in robotics+algorithms. Time will tell.
[1] robotics company acquired by Google: https://www.youtube.com/user/BostonDynamics https://www.youtube.com/user/BostonDynamics
- w_t_payne 11y agoThe automotive industry isn't populated by idiots -- but writing safety critical software isn't the same as writing an app. It is true that there is no fundamental conflict between modern software development practices (Agile etc..) and process-maturity oriented standards like ISO15504 / ASPICE / ISO26262 / DO-178b etc... but writing the tools, build-systems etc... that let these differing concerns coexist in harmony does take some careful consideration, planning, and organisation.
- vlehto 11y agoAlso "chassis with wheels" is easy. Congrats, you have built a trailer. Building a car to satisfy modern consumer is not that difficult, but it isn't trivial either. And it will be expensive. Software companies are good at making software. But car manufacturers currently are some of the leading experts in computer modelling of physical world.
- w_t_payne 11y agoQuite. Also, organising engineering teams on a global scale isn't trivial ... and much of the engineering process is about coordinating people, rather than specifically being concerned with the things that those people are doing.