I gave several examples of non-Bayesian reasoning going into discrimination, with blood type being the most prominent. Hence I conclude that thinking about disc

I gave several examples of non-Bayesian reasoning going into discrimination, with blood type being the most prominent. Hence I conclude that thinking about discrimination primarily as humans applying Bayesian reasoning is not a useful framework to think about the -isms. I see no need to introduce a new mathematical framework given the historical evidence says there is no such simple explanation. We need only look at how humans do risk management. Driving is dangerous, and one of the leading causes of death. Yet people are more scared of airplane crashes, despite how flying is a less dangerous means of transportation. Or, parents are increasingly worried about the safety of their children despite the clear evidence that childhood now is safer than ever. We also see people who gamble on the lottery with the incorrect belief that there are winning streaks or lucky numbers. Thus, human responses are clearly neither Bayesian nor frequentist. I therefore don't see why you think a Bayesian approach, or something close to a Bayesian approach, helps understand the topic. FWIW, an analysis of the sex-based skew in the prison population would also need to look to many other factors, such as the huge increase in incarceration rates over the last few decades, the strong racial component, the different social roles of men and women in US culture, and more. Such a model would also need to explain why, if people thought that men are inherently more dangerous then women and "suffer a lot of discrimination as potential criminals", so many more social roles which require trust or safety traditionally went disproportionately to men. Perhaps there is some confounding variable which is more significant than being a male? For example, if the prior is multi-modal, the is there a reason for the two modes? As another hypothesis which fits the limited data you presented, supposed that men in US culture are supposed to be more trustworthy than women and as such have more power and control. If men break that trust, then they are punished more harshly then women, and for a longer time. That would explain the disproportionate distribution of men in jail, despite the the normal bias for men in the culture. While that is certainly a form of discrimination on the basis of sex, it's not the same sort of discrimination which made black people scared for their lives in a sundown town.