Bayesian thinking is so pervasive, and in most cases so unconsicous, that you don't even have to look that far. "Where did my keys go?" They vanished into thi

Bayesian thinking is so pervasive, and in most cases so unconsicous, that you don't even have to look that far. "Where did my keys go?" They vanished into thin air is not even considered, because its prior is zero. I must have put them somewhere else is the instant frontrunner, because I do it so often. After much unsuccessful searching, hypotheses such as "someone is playing a joke on me" or "my wife accidentally grabbed them" might be considered -- low priors that require additional evidence. Probably only after noticing something like a broken window would "someone broke in and stole them" be considered -- extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. And so on...