> One big question is how quickly frackers would ramp up production again if oil prices rise. What would Nash say about this? a) Stable: Saudis: production hi

> One big question is how quickly frackers would ramp up production again if oil prices rise. What would Nash say about this? a) Stable: Saudis: production high, prices low. US: shale not developed. (OPEC: no "cheating," production adjusts to price.) b) Unstable: SA: low supply. OPEC: cheating. US: shale. c) Unstable: SA: whiplash production and hopefully prices to continually scare US producers out of market. OPEC members desiring predictable revenues revolt / periodic shortfalls make cheating rampant. US: prep work / tech developments for quick spin-up shale projects. Or, big tanks: Massive arbitrage opportunities emerge for futures and warehousing, cutting against SA's ability to control prices. Good article, but I think there's reason to believe SA (or really, US shale) has put a ceiling on oil that isn't going to budge for a while. (OTOH, oil price forecasting has historically ranked highly among foolish human endeavors... )