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Yeah so actually the IMF puts out some great economic research that is pretty highly regarded across the econ community, further, your pet theory for what happe
by HiLo 11y ago
Yeah so actually the IMF puts out some great economic research that is pretty highly regarded across the econ community, further, your pet theory for what happened is really only accepted in maybe some media outlets, but not really the academic community. "A large part of the cash withdrawn from Zero Interest Rate Policy"? Like what? That doesn't even make sense. Are you talking about how low interest rates and a dearth of profitable investment projects causes CFO's to see that the best immediate use for their cash is to return money to shareholders and shore up their balance sheets, after this huge balance sheet recession we had?
The generally accepted theory is that there has been a worldwide demographic slowdown combined with a large number of countries accumulating huge current account surpluses, leading to "the world being awash in savings." This oversupply of capital causes the natural rate of interest to drop, and that is the rate that the Fed needs to follow (it really doesn't so much decide on a proper rate as much as it estimates it mathematically), as it will cause stagnating growth or deflation if too high compared to the natural rate (!!!!!), but will cause inflation if it's actually "too low." So there's no evidence ZIRP has been "too low," in fact all the evidence points to the fact that interest rates actually haven't been low enough.