11 ms·

Silicon Valley Tries to Alter the Perception of Cannabis

85 points by mackmcconnell 11y ago

draw_down 11y ago
The funny thing about stoner stereotypes is how much lazy thinking is involved. And so people who like cannabis but don't fit the stereotype just shut up about it. I guess it's time to do away with the stereotypes, now that there is money to be made! Funny how that works too.
Amorymeltzer 11y ago
>People in the marijuana industry have lately taken to saying that legal marijuana is the next Internet, an untrammeled new market opportunity that is just waiting for its own big brands, the Google and Facebook of pot. This feels like a very poor analogy. Legal marijuana is perhaps "an untrammeled new market opportunity," but I sincerely doubt it will completely revolutionize the majority of human business and recreational activity within a few decades as the internet has.
- JustSomeNobody 11y ago
  I wish we could declare HN a hyperbole free zone.
  - askafriend 11y ago
    I wish we could declare San Francisco a hyperbole-free zone.
    - refurb 11y ago
      I would try and help, but I'm too busy changing the world.
- chillingeffect 11y ago
  It can't possibly because plants don't scale like information does. They don't move as quickly and they don't make use of meta-information like data does. I'm sure there's a good deal of money to be made, but it's not like we're going to have family marijuana plans or access to full-speed marijuana all-day long at your desk at work as we do with information services.
- squidfood 11y ago
  Speaking from Washington State so far, the best analogy is "microbreweries." When the product is consistent and labeled by strain, people learn quite quickly about getting the effects or taste they want. But still a boutique entertainment, ultimately. Of course, many of the microbreweries were bought by Anheuser-Busch, so microbreweries were/are opportunities. But that's "latest trendy foodstuff" big, not "whole-internet" big.
- ksherlock 11y ago
  Too bad there isn't an existing industry based on smoking dried, rolled up plant leaves that they could compare themselves to. Heck, if they realized such an industry existed, they could disrupt it.
  - fapjacks 11y ago
    You're right, and that's how I've always put the potential industry into perspective internally, but it would be suicide for cannabis producers to compare themselves to tobacco producers (or by attempting to "disrupt" it). The perception of cannabis is that it's "juvenile". The perception of tobacco is that it will kill you.
  - cafard 11y ago
    Back in the 1970s somebody wrote a novel, Acapulco Gold, about roughly this situation. I suppose that it is long out of print, but it shouldn't be hard to find on Amazon. Edit: Actually, I think it was about Big Tobacco disrupting the cannabis business, not vice-versa.
    - sanderjd 11y ago
      It seems incredibly likely that Big Tobacco will eventually dominate the cannabis business. The current protection is that the legal environment is still to fraught for corporations of that stature to take the risk.
  - WildUtah 11y ago
    "an existing industry based on smoking" Nobody wants to be compared to an industry that kills millions, ruins lives, and addicts children. Weed dealers have a reputation to protect.
kstenerud 11y ago
Prohibition will slowly ebb until it reaches a tipping point, just like it did with alcohol. We've already seen that the deleterious effects of cannabis are minimal. Heck, if I weren't one of the unlucky few on whom it has no effect, I'd probably use it too.
- 91bananas 11y ago
  Can you expand on why it doesn't have effect on you?
  - beachstartup 11y ago
    it's bullshit. if you gave him an edible he'd be higher than a kite, just like every other person on earth.
    - WildUtah 11y ago
      A lot of people with no smoking experience don't get enough in the lungs the first few times. Actual unresponsiveness to THC is very rare if it exists at all.
  - jarboot 11y ago
    Not the original commenter, but typically nobody feels anything their first time smoking. Sometimes, people don't even feel it a couple times after that. I'm not sure what the biological reason for that is, but it's been that way for nearly every person that I've talked to. I've never heard of anyone not being affected by it after a couple times of smoking or eating infused foods.
jweir 11y ago
Something to consider is the effect growing will have on the power grid. In Portland there have been some blackouts caused by grow houses: http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2015/11/marijuana_grows_cause_power_bl.html http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2015/11/mariju...
- facetube 11y ago
  "Seven is not a lot," said Tom Gauntt, spokesman for the utility.
- wavefunction 11y ago
  Our power grid is rickety and flakey, it needs some serious upgrades. 20,000W of grow lights is what, 40 modern desktops with 500W power supplies? The problem you're mentioning is more about fault tolerance and missing fail-over modes.
  - functionwave 11y ago
    And growing in residential spaces that were never wired for that much power draw, instead of commercial/industrial areas.
    - lmm 11y ago
      I'd be surprised. Just because it's legal doesn't make it exempt from zoning laws, and surely if you're moving into it because of legalization you'd want to stay legal with the rest of your business.
- erbo 11y ago
  And on the commercial real estate market. In central Denver, 1 out of every 11 industrial buildings is now being used for growing marijuana. It's gotten to the point that the owner of Mile High Comics is selling its headquarters building, looking to make a tidy profit in the process: http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/front-range/denver/mile-high-comics-owner-thanks-pot-for-real-estate-boom http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/front-range/denver/mile...
xirdstl 11y ago
Is getting medical marijuana really as easy as a quick video chat with symptoms of frequent heartburn? Prohibiting it seems especially ridiculous if that is the case.
- rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
  Dude, not even. When I worked in the Valley I went to the THC doctor's office with a whole backstory about how I work for a big tech company and I drank to handle the stress etc. When I got there I was given a medical form to fill out. The third page actually asked why I wanted medical marijuana. I simply wrote "anxiety" and figured I'd explain it later. Then I got the call that the doctor was ready to see me. I gave him the form, he flipped straight to the third page, then said: "Hmm...anxiety...when you go to the dispensary, you're going to want to ask for Indica."
  - Zelphyr 11y ago
    Well? Did it help? :)
    - rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
      Marijuana is an interesting drug. On one hand, it is like a stress reset button (along with a good night's sleep), but on the other, it's impossible to OD or feel sick on it, so, unlike alcohol, you can binge or have it all the time and feel few adverse side effects. Thing is, studies have shown that too much use can dampen the brain's ability to absorb (not produce!) dopamine, making everyday successes feel less significant. So yes, it did help, but it comes with caveats. Just because you can blaze all day erryday doesn't mean you should.
      - corin_ 11y ago
        > it's impossible to (..) feel sick on it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitey_%28drugs%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitey_%28drugs%29 How much it too much would depend on your body and tolerance, but I've seen plenty of people feel sick from smoking too much.
Animats 11y ago
What may derail this is the proposal to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule II.[1] That makes marijuana a prescribable drug. This makes it insurance-reimbursable, but distribution is through the usual chain for addictive prescription drugs, with non-renewable prescriptions for specific quantities and reporting to the DEA. This would make it more available for medical purposes, but less available for recreational purposes. [1] http://www.thedailychronic.net/2015/49457/hillary-clinton-endorses-marijuanas-reclassification-to-schedule-ii/ http://www.thedailychronic.net/2015/49457/hillary-clinton-en...
- brianlweiner 11y ago
  Moving to Schedule 2 is a policy that may have made sense twenty years ago. We're well past that at this point - MJ is legal in several states and the sky isn't falling.
  - fapjacks 11y ago
    Right, quite the opposite. In those states, drug arrests are down, prison population is dropping, tax dollars are being collected. It's looking like the right kind of policy from just about every perspective.
    - intopieces 11y ago
      >drug arrests are down Serious question, because this point gets brought up often in this discussion: Did people expect drug arrests to go up or even stay the same? If you remove the ability of police to arrest someone for something, don't arrests then naturally go down?
      - tikhonj 11y ago
        One of the main recurring arguments against legalizing marijuana is that it is a "gateway drug": people who try it are more likely to go on to harder drugs like opium or cocaine. This means that some people legitimately believe that legalizing it would get more people into these other drugs and increase the overall number of drug crimes. It doesn't really make sense to me, but it seems to be one of the most common rationalizations for being against legalization.
davidf18 11y ago
There are over 400,000 emergency room visits per year from marijuana. THC has biphasic activity. At low doses it can create the desired effects but at higher doses it has the opposite effects. These effects include irritability and even psychosis. [1]New England Journal of Medicine (2014): Adverse Health Effects of Marijuana Use: http://dfaf.org/assets/docs/Adverse%20health%20effects.pdf http://dfaf.org/assets/docs/Adverse%20health%20effects.pdf [2] http://www.menshealth.com/medical-marijuana/ http://www.menshealth.com/medical-marijuana/
- pstuart 11y ago
  Ha. I beg to disagree -- that number is gamed. See #6: http://norml.org/library/item/your-government-is-lying-to-you-again-about-marijuana http://norml.org/library/item/your-government-is-lying-to-yo...
- davidf18 11y ago
  Unfortunately many articles are behind paywalls. Here are some that are free to read. PNAS is a very high quality journal. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS): Long-term effects of adolescent-onset and persistent use of cannabis http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3479595/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3479595/ Persistent cannabis users show neuropsychological decline from childhood to midlife http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22927402 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22927402 Personality may explain the association between cannabis use and neuropsychological impairment http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23460701 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23460701
  - trhway 11y ago
    man, arguing against the cannabis on the basis that it is bad for children/teenagers ... We don't even let them drive cars - should we argue against cars on that basis?
- trhway 11y ago
  >There are over 400,000 emergency room visits per year from marijuana. "In 2010, there were approximately 12.1 million diabetes-related ED visits for adults aged 18 years or older" https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb167.jsp https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb167.jsp Should we outlaws sugar and high fructose corn syrup ? Anyway, looking at the full statistics on drug abuse emergency rooms visits it doesn't look like total [hypothetically successful] prohibition of marijuana would have any effect as OTC, other drugs and alcohol would obviously fill the void: http://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/drug-related-hospital-emergency-room-visits http://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/drug-related... "Highlights from the 2009 Drug Abuse Warning Network In 2009, there were nearly 4.6 million drug-related ED visits nationwide. These visits included reports of drug abuse, adverse reactions to drugs, or other drug-related consequences. Almost 50 percent were attributed to adverse reactions to pharmaceuticals taken as prescribed, and 45 percent involved drug abuse. DAWN estimates that of the 2.1 million drug abuse visits— 27.1 percent involved nonmedical use of pharmaceuticals (i.e., prescription or OTC medications, dietary supplements) 21.2 percent involved illicit drugs 14.3 percent involved alcohol, in combination with other drugs "
bashinator 11y ago
I know that HN often doesn't care for wordplay, but the inverse of this headline is both funny and true - "Cannabis tries to Alter the Perception of Silicon Valley".
- askafriend 11y ago
  The author really screwed up by not going with this title.
- johan_larson 11y ago
  Anyone who thinks a plant has agency, and can "try" anything, has been smoking something.
  - bashinator 11y ago
    Oh come on, it's used to indicate intention of non-sentient objects all the time. "The electron tries to fall into the lowest energy state."
hoodoof 11y ago
Cannabis should be treated the same as tobacco.
exelius 11y ago
Very few people are going to get rich off of cannabis. There's really nothing novel about any part of the industry except that it's now legal. Indoor growing / hydroponics are used for a wide variety of plants, so the tech on the production front is already mature (if not commoditized). Because it's pretty cheap to produce and doesn't take a ton of special knowledge, wide legalization will see a race to the bottom on price (along with razor-thin margins for growers). Prices are still very high right now because nobody can achieve sufficient scale (again, thanks to the weird legal environment) but once they do, prices and margins will fall and a lot of growers will get bought out or go out of business. It doesn't really cost much to grow super-high quality marijuana on an industrial scale. The rest of the value chain is really nothing novel either if you ignore the weird regulatory environment that currently exists. A retail store selling weed is not much different from any other retail store. A delivery service is still subject to the same fundamental issues as any other delivery service -- and when weed becomes really cheap, a $10 delivery fee may not make sense when you're buying $20 worth of weed. There's room in the market for differing tastes and consumption methods, but those too are more or less commoditized and can use general-purpose industrial processing equipment. There's a boom right now because the market is growing quickly, but there will be a corresponding crash once the consumer market starts to hit the point where scale matters.
- Zombieball 11y ago
  I personally feel you underestimate how much money there is to be made DURING the race to the bottom. Sure 5 years from now you may not be able to charge a $10 delivery fee. But that's 5 years where you can, grow a company, pivot when the time is right and new market trends emerge. I think your sentiment towards the growing side is spot on though. Large players with experience growing produce and other plants will swoop in and dominate.
  - exelius 11y ago
    Delivery businesses in general are hard to make a buck in. Most of the ones currently operating are only successful because they either charge sky-high delivery fees or they're operating at a loss to gain market share. It's not like hiring people to deliver things is a new concept.

85 points by mackmcconnell 11y ago

The funny thing about stoner stereotypes is how much lazy thinking is involved. And so people who like cannabis but don't fit the stereotype just shut up about it. I guess it's time to do away with the stereotypes, now that there is money to be made! Funny how that works too.

Amorymeltzer 11y ago

>People in the marijuana industry have lately taken to saying that legal marijuana is the next Internet, an untrammeled new market opportunity that is just waiting for its own big brands, the Google and Facebook of pot. This feels like a very poor analogy. Legal marijuana is perhaps "an untrammeled new market opportunity," but I sincerely doubt it will completely revolutionize the majority of human business and recreational activity within a few decades as the internet has.

JustSomeNobody 11y ago
I wish we could declare HN a hyperbole free zone.
- askafriend 11y ago
  I wish we could declare San Francisco a hyperbole-free zone.
  - refurb 11y ago
    I would try and help, but I'm too busy changing the world.
chillingeffect 11y ago
It can't possibly because plants don't scale like information does. They don't move as quickly and they don't make use of meta-information like data does. I'm sure there's a good deal of money to be made, but it's not like we're going to have family marijuana plans or access to full-speed marijuana all-day long at your desk at work as we do with information services.
squidfood 11y ago
Speaking from Washington State so far, the best analogy is "microbreweries." When the product is consistent and labeled by strain, people learn quite quickly about getting the effects or taste they want. But still a boutique entertainment, ultimately. Of course, many of the microbreweries were bought by Anheuser-Busch, so microbreweries were/are opportunities. But that's "latest trendy foodstuff" big, not "whole-internet" big.
ksherlock 11y ago
Too bad there isn't an existing industry based on smoking dried, rolled up plant leaves that they could compare themselves to. Heck, if they realized such an industry existed, they could disrupt it.
- fapjacks 11y ago
  You're right, and that's how I've always put the potential industry into perspective internally, but it would be suicide for cannabis producers to compare themselves to tobacco producers (or by attempting to "disrupt" it). The perception of cannabis is that it's "juvenile". The perception of tobacco is that it will kill you.
- cafard 11y ago
  Back in the 1970s somebody wrote a novel, Acapulco Gold, about roughly this situation. I suppose that it is long out of print, but it shouldn't be hard to find on Amazon. Edit: Actually, I think it was about Big Tobacco disrupting the cannabis business, not vice-versa.
  - sanderjd 11y ago
    It seems incredibly likely that Big Tobacco will eventually dominate the cannabis business. The current protection is that the legal environment is still to fraught for corporations of that stature to take the risk.
- WildUtah 11y ago
  "an existing industry based on smoking" Nobody wants to be compared to an industry that kills millions, ruins lives, and addicts children. Weed dealers have a reputation to protect.

kstenerud 11y ago

Prohibition will slowly ebb until it reaches a tipping point, just like it did with alcohol. We've already seen that the deleterious effects of cannabis are minimal. Heck, if I weren't one of the unlucky few on whom it has no effect, I'd probably use it too.

91bananas 11y ago
Can you expand on why it doesn't have effect on you?
- beachstartup 11y ago
  it's bullshit. if you gave him an edible he'd be higher than a kite, just like every other person on earth.
  - WildUtah 11y ago
    A lot of people with no smoking experience don't get enough in the lungs the first few times. Actual unresponsiveness to THC is very rare if it exists at all.
- jarboot 11y ago
  Not the original commenter, but typically nobody feels anything their first time smoking. Sometimes, people don't even feel it a couple times after that. I'm not sure what the biological reason for that is, but it's been that way for nearly every person that I've talked to. I've never heard of anyone not being affected by it after a couple times of smoking or eating infused foods.

jweir 11y ago

Something to consider is the effect growing will have on the power grid. In Portland there have been some blackouts caused by grow houses: http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2015/11/marijuana_grows_cause_power_bl.html http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2015/11/mariju...

facetube 11y ago
"Seven is not a lot," said Tom Gauntt, spokesman for the utility.
wavefunction 11y ago
Our power grid is rickety and flakey, it needs some serious upgrades. 20,000W of grow lights is what, 40 modern desktops with 500W power supplies? The problem you're mentioning is more about fault tolerance and missing fail-over modes.
- functionwave 11y ago
  And growing in residential spaces that were never wired for that much power draw, instead of commercial/industrial areas.
  - lmm 11y ago
    I'd be surprised. Just because it's legal doesn't make it exempt from zoning laws, and surely if you're moving into it because of legalization you'd want to stay legal with the rest of your business.
erbo 11y ago
And on the commercial real estate market. In central Denver, 1 out of every 11 industrial buildings is now being used for growing marijuana. It's gotten to the point that the owner of Mile High Comics is selling its headquarters building, looking to make a tidy profit in the process: http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/front-range/denver/mile-high-comics-owner-thanks-pot-for-real-estate-boom http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/front-range/denver/mile...

xirdstl 11y ago

Is getting medical marijuana really as easy as a quick video chat with symptoms of frequent heartburn? Prohibiting it seems especially ridiculous if that is the case.

rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
Dude, not even. When I worked in the Valley I went to the THC doctor's office with a whole backstory about how I work for a big tech company and I drank to handle the stress etc. When I got there I was given a medical form to fill out. The third page actually asked why I wanted medical marijuana. I simply wrote "anxiety" and figured I'd explain it later. Then I got the call that the doctor was ready to see me. I gave him the form, he flipped straight to the third page, then said: "Hmm...anxiety...when you go to the dispensary, you're going to want to ask for Indica."
- Zelphyr 11y ago
  Well? Did it help? :)
  - rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
    Marijuana is an interesting drug. On one hand, it is like a stress reset button (along with a good night's sleep), but on the other, it's impossible to OD or feel sick on it, so, unlike alcohol, you can binge or have it all the time and feel few adverse side effects. Thing is, studies have shown that too much use can dampen the brain's ability to absorb (not produce!) dopamine, making everyday successes feel less significant. So yes, it did help, but it comes with caveats. Just because you can blaze all day erryday doesn't mean you should.
    - corin_ 11y ago
      > it's impossible to (..) feel sick on it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitey_%28drugs%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitey_%28drugs%29 How much it too much would depend on your body and tolerance, but I've seen plenty of people feel sick from smoking too much.

Animats 11y ago

What may derail this is the proposal to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule II.[1] That makes marijuana a prescribable drug. This makes it insurance-reimbursable, but distribution is through the usual chain for addictive prescription drugs, with non-renewable prescriptions for specific quantities and reporting to the DEA. This would make it more available for medical purposes, but less available for recreational purposes. [1] http://www.thedailychronic.net/2015/49457/hillary-clinton-endorses-marijuanas-reclassification-to-schedule-ii/ http://www.thedailychronic.net/2015/49457/hillary-clinton-en...

brianlweiner 11y ago
Moving to Schedule 2 is a policy that may have made sense twenty years ago. We're well past that at this point - MJ is legal in several states and the sky isn't falling.
- fapjacks 11y ago
  Right, quite the opposite. In those states, drug arrests are down, prison population is dropping, tax dollars are being collected. It's looking like the right kind of policy from just about every perspective.
  - intopieces 11y ago
    >drug arrests are down Serious question, because this point gets brought up often in this discussion: Did people expect drug arrests to go up or even stay the same? If you remove the ability of police to arrest someone for something, don't arrests then naturally go down?
    - tikhonj 11y ago
      One of the main recurring arguments against legalizing marijuana is that it is a "gateway drug": people who try it are more likely to go on to harder drugs like opium or cocaine. This means that some people legitimately believe that legalizing it would get more people into these other drugs and increase the overall number of drug crimes. It doesn't really make sense to me, but it seems to be one of the most common rationalizations for being against legalization.

davidf18 11y ago

There are over 400,000 emergency room visits per year from marijuana. THC has biphasic activity. At low doses it can create the desired effects but at higher doses it has the opposite effects. These effects include irritability and even psychosis. [1]New England Journal of Medicine (2014): Adverse Health Effects of Marijuana Use: http://dfaf.org/assets/docs/Adverse%20health%20effects.pdf http://dfaf.org/assets/docs/Adverse%20health%20effects.pdf [2] http://www.menshealth.com/medical-marijuana/ http://www.menshealth.com/medical-marijuana/

pstuart 11y ago
Ha. I beg to disagree -- that number is gamed. See #6: http://norml.org/library/item/your-government-is-lying-to-you-again-about-marijuana http://norml.org/library/item/your-government-is-lying-to-yo...
davidf18 11y ago
Unfortunately many articles are behind paywalls. Here are some that are free to read. PNAS is a very high quality journal. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS): Long-term effects of adolescent-onset and persistent use of cannabis http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3479595/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3479595/ Persistent cannabis users show neuropsychological decline from childhood to midlife http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22927402 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22927402 Personality may explain the association between cannabis use and neuropsychological impairment http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23460701 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23460701
- trhway 11y ago
  man, arguing against the cannabis on the basis that it is bad for children/teenagers ... We don't even let them drive cars - should we argue against cars on that basis?
trhway 11y ago
>There are over 400,000 emergency room visits per year from marijuana. "In 2010, there were approximately 12.1 million diabetes-related ED visits for adults aged 18 years or older" https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb167.jsp https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb167.jsp Should we outlaws sugar and high fructose corn syrup ? Anyway, looking at the full statistics on drug abuse emergency rooms visits it doesn't look like total [hypothetically successful] prohibition of marijuana would have any effect as OTC, other drugs and alcohol would obviously fill the void: http://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/drug-related-hospital-emergency-room-visits http://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/drug-related... "Highlights from the 2009 Drug Abuse Warning Network In 2009, there were nearly 4.6 million drug-related ED visits nationwide. These visits included reports of drug abuse, adverse reactions to drugs, or other drug-related consequences. Almost 50 percent were attributed to adverse reactions to pharmaceuticals taken as prescribed, and 45 percent involved drug abuse. DAWN estimates that of the 2.1 million drug abuse visits— 27.1 percent involved nonmedical use of pharmaceuticals (i.e., prescription or OTC medications, dietary supplements) 21.2 percent involved illicit drugs 14.3 percent involved alcohol, in combination with other drugs "

bashinator 11y ago

I know that HN often doesn't care for wordplay, but the inverse of this headline is both funny and true - "Cannabis tries to Alter the Perception of Silicon Valley".

askafriend 11y ago
The author really screwed up by not going with this title.
johan_larson 11y ago
Anyone who thinks a plant has agency, and can "try" anything, has been smoking something.
- bashinator 11y ago
  Oh come on, it's used to indicate intention of non-sentient objects all the time. "The electron tries to fall into the lowest energy state."

hoodoof 11y ago

Cannabis should be treated the same as tobacco.

exelius 11y ago

Very few people are going to get rich off of cannabis. There's really nothing novel about any part of the industry except that it's now legal. Indoor growing / hydroponics are used for a wide variety of plants, so the tech on the production front is already mature (if not commoditized). Because it's pretty cheap to produce and doesn't take a ton of special knowledge, wide legalization will see a race to the bottom on price (along with razor-thin margins for growers). Prices are still very high right now because nobody can achieve sufficient scale (again, thanks to the weird legal environment) but once they do, prices and margins will fall and a lot of growers will get bought out or go out of business. It doesn't really cost much to grow super-high quality marijuana on an industrial scale. The rest of the value chain is really nothing novel either if you ignore the weird regulatory environment that currently exists. A retail store selling weed is not much different from any other retail store. A delivery service is still subject to the same fundamental issues as any other delivery service -- and when weed becomes really cheap, a $10 delivery fee may not make sense when you're buying $20 worth of weed. There's room in the market for differing tastes and consumption methods, but those too are more or less commoditized and can use general-purpose industrial processing equipment. There's a boom right now because the market is growing quickly, but there will be a corresponding crash once the consumer market starts to hit the point where scale matters.

Zombieball 11y ago
I personally feel you underestimate how much money there is to be made DURING the race to the bottom. Sure 5 years from now you may not be able to charge a $10 delivery fee. But that's 5 years where you can, grow a company, pivot when the time is right and new market trends emerge. I think your sentiment towards the growing side is spot on though. Large players with experience growing produce and other plants will swoop in and dominate.
- exelius 11y ago
  Delivery businesses in general are hard to make a buck in. Most of the ones currently operating are only successful because they either charge sky-high delivery fees or they're operating at a loss to gain market share. It's not like hiring people to deliver things is a new concept.