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That's not true. Even businesses that make money will die as a result of this. We're talking about a completely catastrophic event that puts 90% of the worlds

That's not true. Even businesses that make money will die as a result of this. We're talking about a completely catastrophic event that puts 90% of the worlds tech sector out of work. The residual effects will be enormous.

lint_roller 11y ago
90% of the world's tech sector out of business? That's absurd. Sure, if you're working on some messaging app there's a good chance your SOL, but that doesn't mean software's going the way of the dinosaur. To put things in perspective: McKinsey just released a report that 50% of work can be automated and only 5% of work requires a moderate level of human creativity. There are still plenty of peon responsibilities to hand off to the robots.
- fromtheocean 11y ago
  Why do you not think quality startups will be effected by this? Here's a scenario for you. A company is looking to raise a Series B. They make a lot of money. Close to $650k per month. However, they want to grow to 100 employees to tackle a new market with a new product. Without an influx of funding they just can't get there. So they try to raise a series B round. Because investors are super cold they simply aren't funding any companies (this is exactly what happened in 01). That company can't grow, they lose out, and eventually either fold or downsize.
  - icedchai 11y ago
    So they're forced to find a business model that doesn't require 100 employees. If they do, they'll be a better, stronger business for it.
  - drdeca 11y ago
    Well, what do you mean by startup? Do you mean tech companies, or tech companies designed for fast growth at a high risk, or something else? I don't think all companies need a significant external investment to work? If a company is designed to have very low expenses, and is still profitable, that is a thing that can happen I think. I mean if you want to work for a farm go ahead and do that I guess, but I think that not all tech companies need to be startups in the "receives investment from speculators" sense?
  - matt_s 11y ago
    The question is, what part of that $650k per month is profit? If it is revenue and no profit is there, then that is unsustainable without VC funding, right? It's simple math. If there is some model where they need X customers and funding to get there before it is profitable, does that sound like a sound business?
  - stephenr 11y ago
    > Why do you not think quality startups will be effected by this? It's very telling to me that you somehow equate "90% of tech jobs" with "startups"
- shams93 11y ago
  Its interesting even with nasty instruments like the TPP not all coding goes away because good code is actually a form of good writing in English, had computers been based on say sign language things would be different but as it stands good code is good writing and writing well requires excellent English language skills. Like the for loop is not a por loop and a for loop is not a 以下のために loop lol.
jpindar 11y ago
Like what, global thermonuclear war? Oh, you mean the website that doesn't actually sell anything sector. I keep forgetting that cars, radios, medical equipment, airplanes, rockets, robots etc. (all of which contain software, and are sold on websites) are no longer considered "technology".
- FiatLuxDave 11y ago
  Hear, hear! I hope this next bubble bursting will finally kill the misnomer "tech sector" or "tech industry". Call it the website industry or telecomputer sector or something. I mean seriously, I get to work with particle accelerators and software that does Monte Carlo calculations of the way radiation moves through the human body, but that's not "tech". Those guys building hypersonic aircraft, they aren't in "tech". Doctors crafting artificial organs, that's not "high tech" at all. No, some website/app that shows ads alongside cat pictures, that's what high tech is all about. Sadly, I think the name will probably stick until the Next Big Thing comes along, and then telecomp will stop being "high tech" just like all the other high tech industries that don't have every wannabe on the planet trying to squeeze money out of them while the getting is good. /rant

lint_roller 11y ago

90% of the world's tech sector out of business? That's absurd. Sure, if you're working on some messaging app there's a good chance your SOL, but that doesn't mean software's going the way of the dinosaur. To put things in perspective: McKinsey just released a report that 50% of work can be automated and only 5% of work requires a moderate level of human creativity. There are still plenty of peon responsibilities to hand off to the robots.

fromtheocean 11y ago
Why do you not think quality startups will be effected by this? Here's a scenario for you. A company is looking to raise a Series B. They make a lot of money. Close to $650k per month. However, they want to grow to 100 employees to tackle a new market with a new product. Without an influx of funding they just can't get there. So they try to raise a series B round. Because investors are super cold they simply aren't funding any companies (this is exactly what happened in 01). That company can't grow, they lose out, and eventually either fold or downsize.
- icedchai 11y ago
  So they're forced to find a business model that doesn't require 100 employees. If they do, they'll be a better, stronger business for it.
- drdeca 11y ago
  Well, what do you mean by startup? Do you mean tech companies, or tech companies designed for fast growth at a high risk, or something else? I don't think all companies need a significant external investment to work? If a company is designed to have very low expenses, and is still profitable, that is a thing that can happen I think. I mean if you want to work for a farm go ahead and do that I guess, but I think that not all tech companies need to be startups in the "receives investment from speculators" sense?
- matt_s 11y ago
  The question is, what part of that $650k per month is profit? If it is revenue and no profit is there, then that is unsustainable without VC funding, right? It's simple math. If there is some model where they need X customers and funding to get there before it is profitable, does that sound like a sound business?
- stephenr 11y ago
  > Why do you not think quality startups will be effected by this? It's very telling to me that you somehow equate "90% of tech jobs" with "startups"
shams93 11y ago
Its interesting even with nasty instruments like the TPP not all coding goes away because good code is actually a form of good writing in English, had computers been based on say sign language things would be different but as it stands good code is good writing and writing well requires excellent English language skills. Like the for loop is not a por loop and a for loop is not a 以下のために loop lol.

jpindar 11y ago

Like what, global thermonuclear war? Oh, you mean the website that doesn't actually sell anything sector. I keep forgetting that cars, radios, medical equipment, airplanes, rockets, robots etc. (all of which contain software, and are sold on websites) are no longer considered "technology".

FiatLuxDave 11y ago
Hear, hear! I hope this next bubble bursting will finally kill the misnomer "tech sector" or "tech industry". Call it the website industry or telecomputer sector or something. I mean seriously, I get to work with particle accelerators and software that does Monte Carlo calculations of the way radiation moves through the human body, but that's not "tech". Those guys building hypersonic aircraft, they aren't in "tech". Doctors crafting artificial organs, that's not "high tech" at all. No, some website/app that shows ads alongside cat pictures, that's what high tech is all about. Sadly, I think the name will probably stick until the Next Big Thing comes along, and then telecomp will stop being "high tech" just like all the other high tech industries that don't have every wannabe on the planet trying to squeeze money out of them while the getting is good. /rant