The cost of a contract doesn't represent whether the result is reproducible or not, it predicts the probability that it's reproducible. So what do they mean wh

The cost of a contract doesn't represent whether the result is reproducible or not, it predicts the probability that it's reproducible. So what do they mean when they say it correctly predicted the outcome? Are they just saying the odds fell on the same side as the reproduction indicated? If so, that seems arbitrary. If the cutoff for a p-value is 0.05, then shouldn't we say that any contract selling for less than $95 predicts a reproduction failure?