The problem with using that model is that it assumes that once the war/disaster ends, there is a reasonable amount of time (10-15 years) in which the rebuilding

The problem with using that model is that it assumes that once the war/disaster ends, there is a reasonable amount of time (10-15 years) in which the rebuilding can take hold and the economy can develop. Haiti gets a significant natural disaster every three to four years - generally hurricanes and floods, but in this case, an earthquake. So every time they start to rebuild, they get hit again and it all gets undone.