3 ms·
That's a feature, not a bug, I believe. Results that contradict the dominant theory are in general much less likely than one's that confirm it or extend it, and
by michael_fine 11y ago
That's a feature, not a bug, I believe. Results that contradict the dominant theory are in general much less likely than one's that confirm it or extend it, and as such will have much lower odds. As a result, if you have significant evidence that such a result is true, then there is a large upside in betting on it, enough to outweigh the unlikelihood.
- sharp11 11y agoThat's interesting. You're looking at it from the point of view of the bettor. My concern is just that non-dominant lines of inquiry are already intensely selected against and this just institutionalizes that bias. But I see your point that the lopsided upside incentivizes contrarians. That's very interesting .. I have to think about that! [Edited as enlightenment dawns ...]
- savanaly 11y agoThat's as it should be, though. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and studies should be regarded more skeptically the more surprising their results are.