4 ms·
What you're missing is called momentum investing. People are riding on the momentum of Facebook based on trailing properties from the last 3/6/12/x months [1].
by acconrad 11y ago
What you're missing is called momentum investing. People are riding on the momentum of Facebook based on trailing properties from the last 3/6/12/x months [1]. If you were a value investor, like Buffett, and your valuation was based on fundamental analysis, you would have a very hard time making a compelling case that Facebook is fairly valued.
The other difficult thing about tech stocks is their store of value is vastly different than traditional industrial companies. Most of where people find value in the business of Facebook is it's the only real central store of more than 1 billion people's personal information. How do you price that? You can't buy a person (intangible asset) like you can buy a machine (tangible asset), but there is a price to having that knowledge. It's also not IP, like the primary intangible asset of biotech and pharma stocks.
Can you see why people like Buffett (and his mentor, Ben Graham) don't believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
[1] http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/momentum_investing.asp http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/momentum_investing.asp
- lujim 11y agoThere is a fair argument that momentum investing doesn't beat "buy and hold". I like watching the 200, 100, and 50 day moving averages but that's as technical as I get. I get off the boat at channel breakouts and resistance levels. I think it becomes a pseudo science at that point. The best argument on this I've seen is in "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is on shaky ground a lot of years. I guess it works in the sense that markets will correct given enough time, but I'm mostly sitting this market out since the end of QE4. Sure I'm missing out on some gains, but gains are only real when you can sell on time.