3 ms·

Because of centuries of data, climatic modelling, and... have you looked out of your window lately?

by madaxe_again 11y ago

tedunangst 11y ago
Wait. You're saying I should evaluate claims of global warming by looking out my window?
- spdustin 11y ago
  Climate change. And, odds are, looking out your window for a year and comparing that to what you saw and documented in previous years would show that the climate you've experienced this past year is different. It's changed. The weather on any given day may not, but the sum total of annual energies revealing themselves to you through temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity... that is likely to be different from past years in a statistically significant way.
  - tedunangst 11y ago
    Seems like a flawed setup. If I observe a change, "see, there's climate change." If I don't observe a change, "duh, it's global change, you can't just measure locally." Heads you win, tails I lose. And seriously, compare this year to last? Do you think the climate in years 1000 and 1001 didn't change? This is exactly the bullshit "science" climate change deniers use.
    - thaumaturgy 11y ago
      Yeah, I'm fully in the "humans are causing a global climate problem that is going to make life difficult for humans" camp, and I agree with you here. We can't on the one hand say, "it's climate, not weather, it's global, not local", and then on the other hand point to local severe weather effects as evidence. They are evidence, but only when looked at on a global scale, and it's confusing to people to try to have it both ways. It drives me nuts when there's a new report that says, "2015 was the hottest year on record!" and then somebody always has to come along and say "But it was freezing in Boston!"; likewise when a report says, "there will be severe weather effects according to this model!", I shouldn't say, "and look at that one hurricane this year!"
- madaxe_again 11y ago
  No, my point was rather more that if you're older than six, which I presume you are (although some of the other commenters here, I can't help but wonder...), you will be aware that there has been a marked change in climate over the last several decades. Here in the UK, it has got progressively warmer and wetter - the MET backs this up - and while this can't yet be counted as a long term trend - do we need tropical storms to get twice as big as they are now before we go "yup, they keep getting bigger"? Every year brings the biggest recorded storm in history. Either way, this is no replacement for rigorous scientific examination, which validates this view-point but I do struggle to see how people can say that nothing is changing when it quite clearly is.
puppetmaster3 11y ago
Hi MadAxe. Do you have links or data as per my comment? For example - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age shows centuries of data, but refutes the point in this thread. As to modeling, I'll represent that I'm a software modeling expert - would you like the model to show, that 'When the global average goes up, the extremes get more extreme'?

Because of centuries of data, climatic modelling, and... have you looked out of your window lately?

tedunangst 11y ago

Wait. You're saying I should evaluate claims of global warming by looking out my window?

spdustin 11y ago
Climate change. And, odds are, looking out your window for a year and comparing that to what you saw and documented in previous years would show that the climate you've experienced this past year is different. It's changed. The weather on any given day may not, but the sum total of annual energies revealing themselves to you through temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity... that is likely to be different from past years in a statistically significant way.
- tedunangst 11y ago
  Seems like a flawed setup. If I observe a change, "see, there's climate change." If I don't observe a change, "duh, it's global change, you can't just measure locally." Heads you win, tails I lose. And seriously, compare this year to last? Do you think the climate in years 1000 and 1001 didn't change? This is exactly the bullshit "science" climate change deniers use.
  - thaumaturgy 11y ago
    Yeah, I'm fully in the "humans are causing a global climate problem that is going to make life difficult for humans" camp, and I agree with you here. We can't on the one hand say, "it's climate, not weather, it's global, not local", and then on the other hand point to local severe weather effects as evidence. They are evidence, but only when looked at on a global scale, and it's confusing to people to try to have it both ways. It drives me nuts when there's a new report that says, "2015 was the hottest year on record!" and then somebody always has to come along and say "But it was freezing in Boston!"; likewise when a report says, "there will be severe weather effects according to this model!", I shouldn't say, "and look at that one hurricane this year!"
madaxe_again 11y ago
No, my point was rather more that if you're older than six, which I presume you are (although some of the other commenters here, I can't help but wonder...), you will be aware that there has been a marked change in climate over the last several decades. Here in the UK, it has got progressively warmer and wetter - the MET backs this up - and while this can't yet be counted as a long term trend - do we need tropical storms to get twice as big as they are now before we go "yup, they keep getting bigger"? Every year brings the biggest recorded storm in history. Either way, this is no replacement for rigorous scientific examination, which validates this view-point but I do struggle to see how people can say that nothing is changing when it quite clearly is.

puppetmaster3 11y ago

Hi MadAxe. Do you have links or data as per my comment? For example - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age shows centuries of data, but refutes the point in this thread. As to modeling, I'll represent that I'm a software modeling expert - would you like the model to show, that 'When the global average goes up, the extremes get more extreme'?