Ask HN: Is cold fusion a Black Swan?

It's entirely possible that I don't understand what a "Black Swan" is, but given that people have been predicting it, and the ramifications of lower cost, carbon free energy are predictable, and given that there is no "Psychological Bias" against believing in Cold Fusion - just a really gnarly technical/science problem to solve - it doesn't seem to fulfill the definition of a black swan as defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory What do others think? (HN was the only audience I could think of that was familiar with Black Swans.)