I would guess that the cost of bringing an aluminium smelting plant online is quite a barrier to entry. Your competitors will already have moved along the cost

I would guess that the cost of bringing an aluminium smelting plant online is quite a barrier to entry. Your competitors will already have moved along the cost curve, gradually replacing equipment as they green. On top of the capital investment, margins will be thin in a commodity industry too. A new entrant in this future scenario will basically be saving the expense of shipping. If right now $1500 + shipping from China beats out $1800 made in the USA that means a capital investment for 10-15% margin.