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How you can predict the future estimates based on recording now? What makes software estimation so difficult is that it's like maze. How long will take you to

by UK-AL 11y ago

How you can predict the future estimates based on recording now? What makes software estimation so difficult is that it's like maze. How long will take you to complete a maze? You don't know what's coming up in a maze, and you cant give an exact estimate. And trying to work out details to work out what is coming up, takes almost as long actually programming it. This is why I promote the idea that variation should be inbuilt into methodology. Remove the assumption software can be accurately estimated, build methodology around the fact it's hard to predict. I use guestimates of 'effort', but I don't hold people to it.

kohanz 11y ago
exact estimate I think you've imposed an unachievable standard here. This is why I promote the idea that variation should be inbuilt into methodology This may well work within an agile team deep in an organization, because the business of turning "effort" into costs is abstracted from you. At the end of the day, if you're a consultant with a client, they are going to ask you up front for a rough cost estimate. If you can't estimate the time you'll need with any level of confidence, how do you propose to land their business?
HeyLaughingBoy 11y ago
Prediction only works for what you know. Seems obvious, but people have a way of "forgetting" that. So you estimate within the parameters of what you know about. If what you know changes, then your predictions have to change. There are various points on the predictability curve. I used to work in an environment that was extremely predictable: projects with well-defined scope that took years to complete and changes were tightly managed. If scope changed, the stakeholders understood the cost to the schedule. An environment like that is perfect for using past time estimates vs. actual time taken to estimate future similar or dissimilar-but-related tasks. In other environments I worked in, it's more chaotic. Things change frequently, so estimates change frequently. Often you your long term vision is compromised by firefighting, so that vision has to be adjusted constantly. If you have a deadline, then tasks need to shift to meet the deadline.

by UK-AL 11y ago

kohanz 11y ago

exact estimate I think you've imposed an unachievable standard here. This is why I promote the idea that variation should be inbuilt into methodology This may well work within an agile team deep in an organization, because the business of turning "effort" into costs is abstracted from you. At the end of the day, if you're a consultant with a client, they are going to ask you up front for a rough cost estimate. If you can't estimate the time you'll need with any level of confidence, how do you propose to land their business?

HeyLaughingBoy 11y ago

Prediction only works for what you know. Seems obvious, but people have a way of "forgetting" that. So you estimate within the parameters of what you know about. If what you know changes, then your predictions have to change. There are various points on the predictability curve. I used to work in an environment that was extremely predictable: projects with well-defined scope that took years to complete and changes were tightly managed. If scope changed, the stakeholders understood the cost to the schedule. An environment like that is perfect for using past time estimates vs. actual time taken to estimate future similar or dissimilar-but-related tasks. In other environments I worked in, it's more chaotic. Things change frequently, so estimates change frequently. Often you your long term vision is compromised by firefighting, so that vision has to be adjusted constantly. If you have a deadline, then tasks need to shift to meet the deadline.