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You are exhibiting a case of failing in the "2. Ability to model other people as having really different mind-designs." The author is a psychologist, not a stat
by goodcanadian 11y ago
You are exhibiting a case of failing in the "2. Ability to model other people as having really different mind-designs." The author is a psychologist, not a statistician. When he talks about thinking probabilistically, he is not talking about sitting down and doing the math. He is talking about recognizing that there is no such thing as certainty and understanding that even very unlikely outcomes may occasionally occur. It is about making reasonable rational decisions in an uncertain world, hedging uncertainty if possible, and generally being OK with it.
- kazagistar 11y agoIn college I had a friend who didn't understand 50/50. If an outcome was not yet decided, then both options are the same "size", right? One would like to think that my debates with him about this, or maybe the stats class he took, we're what helped fix this intuition. But what probably was just as important was playing games like LoL, where in the face of uncertainty, you make calculated risks all the time. At some point, it is impossible to get better without making intelligent risks.