Yes, but that's not what this problem is about. Monty Hall actually knew where the car was and never picked it, that's how the show worked. The problem is that

Yes, but that's not what this problem is about. Monty Hall actually knew where the car was and never picked it, that's how the show worked. The problem is that whenever the Monty Hall problem comes up, this is never clear in the phrasing. For someone who have never seen "Let's make a deal", this is not obvious, and thus people are confounded by the problem when really it's not very confounding if you knew the facts. On a side note, I think what you talked about would be 0.2% chance: product((n-1)/n) n=3 to 1000 I'm not a stats/probability wiz, but I suppose if you need to decide between Monty Hall using his knowledge or not, you'd be fairly certain by this point...