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The biggest problem with nuclear is making the numbers work. You end up paying something like 80% of the cost 1 GW/year * 50 years before you get your first cen
by bradleyjg 11y ago
The biggest problem with nuclear is making the numbers work. You end up paying something like 80% of the cost 1 GW/year * 50 years before you get your first cent in revenue. That's a very tough thing to finance. Cost and especially time overruns during construction can easily tank the project financially. About the only way to make it work is to be a regulated utility that has a long term captured audience for its power. One that's very likely to be the same size or bigger for the next half century. Even there you still have to worry about technological change pulling the carpet out from under you in 20 or 30 years.
That's leaving aside the questions of insurance, local and federal regulatory approval, and waste disposal / decommissioning costs.
- lighthawk 11y agoSo you're saying that no nuclear plants are going to be built because of the threat of renewable energy sources becoming cheaper or perhaps other tech like fusion?: http://www.geek.com/science/germany-is-ready-to-switch-on-its-stellarator-fusion-reactor-1638483/ http://www.geek.com/science/germany-is-ready-to-switch-on-it...
- toomuchtodo 11y agoAre you comparing an experimental technology like Germany's fusion reactor to proven wind generation that is driving commercial reactors out of business? http://midwestenergynews.com/2015/05/01/exelon-we-have-to-have-an-answer-on-nuclear-plants/ http://midwestenergynews.com/2015/05/01/exelon-we-have-to-ha...
- lighthawk 11y agoI'm saying that > 50 years is a long time and a lot can happen. I could have also pointed at Google's Sunroof project as an example of a large company betting that solar can compete: http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/212363-google-is-launching-sunroof-for-solar-skeptics http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/212363-google-is-launchin... I couldn't guess what energy producing and distribution technologies will be most prevalent in 100 years. Advancements could just as easily be made relating to fission reactors, so I don't think it's fair to say that large power companies shouldn't invest in more reactors. But, I agree there is probably risk in investing in them.
- DrScump 11y agoThe longest-lived "proven" wind project in CA is shutting down. http://www.insidebayarea.com/breaking-news/ci_29048836/altamont-pass-controversial-wind-turbine-company-shutting-down?source=rss http://www.insidebayarea.com/breaking-news/ci_29048836/altam...
- toomuchtodo 11y agoNot worried: http://www.awea.org/Resources/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=5059 http://www.awea.org/Resources/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=5059
- maxerickson 11y ago800 of 4900 turbines are shutting down. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altamont_Pass_Wind_Farm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altamont_Pass_Wind_Farm It's not clear from that what the other operators are doing, but there seems to be some work put into replacing smaller turbines with larger ones that are less disruptive to birds.
- jerven 11y agoThese are old, small turbines going offline. They will be replace by a 100 new ones that are going to produce a lot more power. Funnily enough, these old wind turbines are worth good money in pure raw materials. Expect near 100% recycling for them.
- martinald 11y agoThat doesn't make any sense. Wind and Solar PV have to be financed for probably 99% of the upfront cost. All power generation is like that - very capital intensive.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoWind and solar can be built MW project by MW project, and turned up in weeks or months. You'll take years just to get a nuclear reactor approved. EDIT: What's that Bezos quote? "Your margin is my opportunity?" Same for renewables. Your delays are my opportunity.
- Roodgorf 11y agoI'm unfamiliar with the term "MW project", could you please clarify?
- toomuchtodo 11y agoNameplate capacity is the number registered with authorities for classifying the power output of a power station usually expressed in megawatts (MW). Power plants with an output consistently near their nameplate capacity have a high capacity factor.
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- onli 11y agoOf course that does make sense. To build a wind mill and to distribute the costs is a totally different kind of economic endeavor than to build and finance a nuclear power plant, which can only be profitable with state subventions anyway.
- Turing_Machine 11y agoWhich grid-scale wind or solar projects are profitable without being subsidized by the government? I'm not aware of any.