4 ms·

Playing devil's advocate here: > I know, these are tough scenarios, but falsifying established science is hard. It is also very hard to falsify the theory tha

Playing devil's advocate here: > I know, these are tough scenarios, but falsifying established science is hard. It is also very hard to falsify the theory that invisible pink unicorns are causing global warming. It's not necessarily a good thing that a theory is hard to falsify. For 2): there has been a 15-year global warming pause, which none of the models predicted. With your definition 2), that's actually close to a falsification of AGW.

ageofwant 11y ago
There was no 15 year pause in global warming.
- semi-extrinsic 11y ago
  If there wasn't, why did everyone, including leading climate scientists and the IPCC, say there was [1]? A point I do agree on, which was also the point of my comment: a 10 or 15 year period is too short to say anything about climate. A pertinent question is then: what is a long enough period? http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-24173504 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-24173504
  - ageofwant 11y ago
    Everyone ? In the off-change that you are not auto-gasslighting yourself try browsing in incognito mode: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/noaa-analysis-journal-science-no-slowdown-in-global-warming-in-recent-years.html http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/noaa-analysis-journ... http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-wa... http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/06/15/a-pause-in-global-warming-not-really/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/06/15/a-pause-in...
    - semi-extrinsic 11y ago
      Ehm, no. The pop-sci reporting on that study had a very misleading title; the pop-sci report in Science was titled "Evidence Against a Global Warming Hiatus?" based on the scientific paper titled "Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus" Also, that is a single paper, based on adjusting historical temperature data for a single data set, which then shows less of a hiatus. Compare that to the fifth IPCC report, based on a large number of data sets and a very large number of studies, which states unequivocally “[global temperature] has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years [1998-2012] than over the past 30 to 60 years.”
Asbostos 11y ago
Look at the biased language here - "pause" implies that it's temporary. But it hasn't finished pausing yet and since our models didn't predict the pause, we don't know when or if it'll finish. It should be called a "stop".

ageofwant 11y ago

There was no 15 year pause in global warming.

semi-extrinsic 11y ago
If there wasn't, why did everyone, including leading climate scientists and the IPCC, say there was [1]? A point I do agree on, which was also the point of my comment: a 10 or 15 year period is too short to say anything about climate. A pertinent question is then: what is a long enough period? http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-24173504 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-24173504
- ageofwant 11y ago
  Everyone ? In the off-change that you are not auto-gasslighting yourself try browsing in incognito mode: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/noaa-analysis-journal-science-no-slowdown-in-global-warming-in-recent-years.html http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/noaa-analysis-journ... http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-wa... http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/06/15/a-pause-in-global-warming-not-really/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/06/15/a-pause-in...
  - semi-extrinsic 11y ago
    Ehm, no. The pop-sci reporting on that study had a very misleading title; the pop-sci report in Science was titled "Evidence Against a Global Warming Hiatus?" based on the scientific paper titled "Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus" Also, that is a single paper, based on adjusting historical temperature data for a single data set, which then shows less of a hiatus. Compare that to the fifth IPCC report, based on a large number of data sets and a very large number of studies, which states unequivocally “[global temperature] has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years [1998-2012] than over the past 30 to 60 years.”

Asbostos 11y ago

Look at the biased language here - "pause" implies that it's temporary. But it hasn't finished pausing yet and since our models didn't predict the pause, we don't know when or if it'll finish. It should be called a "stop".