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All other arguments aside ... this idea also fails if the judging party's idea of quality is mostly uncorrelated with actual quality. Which Graham says in other
by jblow 11y ago
All other arguments aside ... this idea also fails if the judging party's idea of quality is mostly uncorrelated with actual quality. Which Graham says in other essays is usually the case (it's what you mean when you say it's almost impossible to predict which companies will be successful).
Graham says the subjects of bias "have to be better to get selected", but what is really going on is they have to be better according to the metrics of the judge which are essentially arbitrary.
- yummyfajitas 11y agoThis is false - noise doesn't hurt this test at all. See my comment explaining why: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10483991 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10483991 Bad measurements add noise (and increase the sample size required) but they don't invalidate the bias detection procedure.
- gizmo 11y agoThis is also in large part why people tend to hire/fund younger versions of themselves. If judgement wasn't arbitrary much more diversity should be expected.