4 ms·

This is funny "starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, anded,. finally

This is funny "starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, anded,. finally “Car in charge” in 2025." Given what Google has already demonstrated, its more likely we will see fully autonomous within 5 years. I'm betting less than that in a few test cities. So probably too late already for "Detroit"

ghaff 11y ago
Are you seriously suggesting that, in just five years, you'll be able to go to your computer and order yourself a car that will drive itself to your house in an arbitrary US city? (Because, if we're going to have 100% autonomous cars, we might as well assume that we've totally revamped the whole automobile distribution system too.) Even the "car in charge" in 2025 seems ridiculously optimistic even if the problem is tightly bounded by type of road.
- magic5227 11y ago
  Yes. I think maybe in 1-2 cities in limited areas I will be able to use an app on my phone to order a Google car from point A to B. I think it will have lots of limits, perhaps limited to certain areas within a city, perhaps limited by speeds, time of day etc. I don't think it will be long distance, most cities won't have it, highways later, etc.
  - ghaff 11y ago
    >Given what Google has already demonstrated, its more likely we will see fully autonomous within 5 years. I'm betting less than that in a few test cities. So, in other words, no. Not to pick on you but the scenario you (optimistically IMO) describe is that, on a test basis, under certain limited circumstances and locations, might be able to have fully autonomous vehicles. (Though if they're that limited, why would they be legally allowed on the streets?) And highways actually seem like a more likely nearish-term scenario given that, aside from the occasional deer/moose, debris, and construction (which could presumably be dealt with in various ways) seems far more manageable than the typical city street.
renox 11y ago
> Given what Google has already demonstrated, its more likely we will see fully autonomous within 5 years. Really? I thought that Google's car doesn't work in bad weather (and it say so in the article too).
- magic5227 11y ago
  Los Angeles doesn't have many of those :) Sure it will be limited in all kinds of ways, but many cities will and want to support the early versions.

ghaff 11y ago

Are you seriously suggesting that, in just five years, you'll be able to go to your computer and order yourself a car that will drive itself to your house in an arbitrary US city? (Because, if we're going to have 100% autonomous cars, we might as well assume that we've totally revamped the whole automobile distribution system too.) Even the "car in charge" in 2025 seems ridiculously optimistic even if the problem is tightly bounded by type of road.

magic5227 11y ago
Yes. I think maybe in 1-2 cities in limited areas I will be able to use an app on my phone to order a Google car from point A to B. I think it will have lots of limits, perhaps limited to certain areas within a city, perhaps limited by speeds, time of day etc. I don't think it will be long distance, most cities won't have it, highways later, etc.
- ghaff 11y ago
  >Given what Google has already demonstrated, its more likely we will see fully autonomous within 5 years. I'm betting less than that in a few test cities. So, in other words, no. Not to pick on you but the scenario you (optimistically IMO) describe is that, on a test basis, under certain limited circumstances and locations, might be able to have fully autonomous vehicles. (Though if they're that limited, why would they be legally allowed on the streets?) And highways actually seem like a more likely nearish-term scenario given that, aside from the occasional deer/moose, debris, and construction (which could presumably be dealt with in various ways) seems far more manageable than the typical city street.

renox 11y ago

> Given what Google has already demonstrated, its more likely we will see fully autonomous within 5 years. Really? I thought that Google's car doesn't work in bad weather (and it say so in the article too).

magic5227 11y ago
Los Angeles doesn't have many of those :) Sure it will be limited in all kinds of ways, but many cities will and want to support the early versions.