9 ms·

And in 2015 everyone is on Facebook. If everyone moves off of Facebook then we're back in the "good old days" but until then, there are many social aspects, suc

by pgodzin 11y ago

And in 2015 everyone is on Facebook. If everyone moves off of Facebook then we're back in the "good old days" but until then, there are many social aspects, such as event planning, that are being done entirely on the site. You can't point to a time when FB wasn't around and say that everyone didn't have FB then and can just as easily not have it again when reality has changed so much since then.

ctdonath 11y ago
And in 2010 "nobody" will be in Facebook. I've been watching this social media lifecycle for 30 years. No, Facebook isn't "too big to fail" any more than the dozen other "too big to fail" forums, all of which failed.
- onewaystreet 11y ago
  It's easy to say Facebook will eventually fail, but given its size it will take a major shift in Internet usage for it to happen. People compare Facebook to AOL. AOL started to decline because of the shift from dial-up to broadband. What will cause Facebook to decline? A shift to mobile? Facebook owns four of top social apps (Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp, Instagram). VR? Facebook owns Oculus.
  - ctdonath 11y ago
    AOL bought Time-Warner, major broadband supplier. How could the monster dominating social media site lose market share in the shift to broadband when they practically owned broadband? But...they did, completely.
    - onewaystreet 11y ago
      That was the idea, but then you have to execute. The AOL Time-Warner merger was fraught with managerial infighting. So far Facebook has been good at integrating its acquisitions.
- grumblestumble 11y ago
  Please tell me more about all these historical "too big to fail" "forums" where across the globe, all of my non-technical friends and their entire families, including grandma, were signed up and active.
  - bigbugbag 11y ago
    So basically you are asking "tell me about those online places where I couldn't find those people who had no internet access at the time." Internet penetration increases through time and with that more non-knowledgeable people get on board and go to the lowest common denominator, lower branches. See AOL, eternal september. The point being that those site such as facebook and those who came before have no proper value. Value and content comes from the users, who can shift it around quite faster than expected. -edit- sorry, allow me to correct myself here, facebook has value in that it succeeded in linking real names with online profiles. Something that was unthinkable and contrary to common sense and netiquette. -/edit- Follow the trail of 13 years old and you'll know which site is gonna succeed in the near future.
  - ctdonath 11y ago
    CompuServe. AOL. Both dominated social media so much that anyone new had practically no choice but sign up because everyone they knew who was on any social media was on there. Wasn't long ago here on HN we were bantering about Facebook disappearing because everyone was leaving in droves.
    - TheOtherHobbes 11y ago
      There's always a Facebook-shaped niche. It used to a CompuServe-shaped niche. Then it turned into an AOL-shaped niche. But it's the same niche, for more-or-less the same user profile. And it'a a very vulnerable niche. FB may seem unstoppable at the moment, but it really isn't. The number of ways it could be replaced is non-trivial. Zuckerberg knows this, hence internet.org, which is really just a way to promote lock-in in the developing world. But that's a lot less useful than it seems if FB loses traction in the developed world.
icanhackit 11y ago
there are many social aspects, such as event planning, that are being done entirely on the site I haven't had a Facebook account for 3 years and while that was my main concern, I found that any event worth going to the organizer would simply call, message or email you because they wanted you to be there. People vastly underestimate the power of their real social network and what friendship or love can do to motivate people to maintain relationships. Canning your account is also a good way to cull relationships not worth maintaining. In my case it was around 70% of my contacts, leaving 30% who I gave a damn about. The ultimate tool for social networking is still at my disposal - the mobile phone. Facebook is a middle-man. A relationship broker. Some advice for anyone who plans on closing their Facebook account: scrape any photos with you in them (and anyone you have an affinity for), phone numbers and the big one: birthdays. My calendar reminds me when someone has a birthday and their phone numbers sit in my contacts list.
- nitrogen 11y ago
  I haven't had a Facebook account for 3 years and while that was my main concern, I found that any event worth going to the organizer would simply call, message or email you because they wanted you to be there. People vastly underestimate the power of their real social network and what friendship or love can do to motivate people to maintain relationships. Based on the comments people make about how essential Facebook is, it seems that not everyone has the luxury of such friendships. Maybe it's because they grew up in a military family that moved around frequently, or they came from a small town where nobody shared their interests, etc. They still might want the company of the fair weather friends who only invite them to do stuff via mass events on Facebook.
  - TeMPOraL 11y ago
    > Maybe it's because they grew up in a military family that moved around frequently, or they came from a small town where nobody shared their interests, etc. They still might want the company of the fair weather friends who only invite them to do stuff via mass events on Facebook. Or maybe they're just... normal, regular adults? The kind that met their friends in school and university, and then had to split with most of them because some were from out of town, other moved; everyone now has a job and responsibilities and any tool that lets you maintain relationships without crazy amount of micromanagement is a very useful thing? Some comments try to marginalize Facebook as if it was something weird. It isn't. It's normal to use it. That's what regular folks do.
aaronmhatch 11y ago
"And in 2015 everyone is on Facebook" Not even close. Check some statistics on how many (or few) teenagers use it.
bigbugbag 11y ago
I'm not on facebook never will be, many people are not. Some do not have broadband internet access, other do not have internet access at all or even a computer. Can you believe this, there are people who do not have consistent electricity. Obviously not everyone is on facebook in 2015 and this is something that will simply not happen.
ryandrake 11y ago
Being "on Facebook" does not imply that one loses access to other forms of communication. I'm not a Facebook user, but a few of my friends are (presumably). They still respond to E-mails and they still answer phone calls. I've never encountered anyone who claimed that as soon as they signed up for Facebook, they lost Grandma's phone number.

by pgodzin 11y ago

ctdonath 11y ago

And in 2010 "nobody" will be in Facebook. I've been watching this social media lifecycle for 30 years. No, Facebook isn't "too big to fail" any more than the dozen other "too big to fail" forums, all of which failed.

onewaystreet 11y ago
It's easy to say Facebook will eventually fail, but given its size it will take a major shift in Internet usage for it to happen. People compare Facebook to AOL. AOL started to decline because of the shift from dial-up to broadband. What will cause Facebook to decline? A shift to mobile? Facebook owns four of top social apps (Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp, Instagram). VR? Facebook owns Oculus.
- ctdonath 11y ago
  AOL bought Time-Warner, major broadband supplier. How could the monster dominating social media site lose market share in the shift to broadband when they practically owned broadband? But...they did, completely.
  - onewaystreet 11y ago
    That was the idea, but then you have to execute. The AOL Time-Warner merger was fraught with managerial infighting. So far Facebook has been good at integrating its acquisitions.
grumblestumble 11y ago
Please tell me more about all these historical "too big to fail" "forums" where across the globe, all of my non-technical friends and their entire families, including grandma, were signed up and active.
- bigbugbag 11y ago
  So basically you are asking "tell me about those online places where I couldn't find those people who had no internet access at the time." Internet penetration increases through time and with that more non-knowledgeable people get on board and go to the lowest common denominator, lower branches. See AOL, eternal september. The point being that those site such as facebook and those who came before have no proper value. Value and content comes from the users, who can shift it around quite faster than expected. -edit- sorry, allow me to correct myself here, facebook has value in that it succeeded in linking real names with online profiles. Something that was unthinkable and contrary to common sense and netiquette. -/edit- Follow the trail of 13 years old and you'll know which site is gonna succeed in the near future.
- ctdonath 11y ago
  CompuServe. AOL. Both dominated social media so much that anyone new had practically no choice but sign up because everyone they knew who was on any social media was on there. Wasn't long ago here on HN we were bantering about Facebook disappearing because everyone was leaving in droves.
  - TheOtherHobbes 11y ago
    There's always a Facebook-shaped niche. It used to a CompuServe-shaped niche. Then it turned into an AOL-shaped niche. But it's the same niche, for more-or-less the same user profile. And it'a a very vulnerable niche. FB may seem unstoppable at the moment, but it really isn't. The number of ways it could be replaced is non-trivial. Zuckerberg knows this, hence internet.org, which is really just a way to promote lock-in in the developing world. But that's a lot less useful than it seems if FB loses traction in the developed world.

icanhackit 11y ago

there are many social aspects, such as event planning, that are being done entirely on the site I haven't had a Facebook account for 3 years and while that was my main concern, I found that any event worth going to the organizer would simply call, message or email you because they wanted you to be there. People vastly underestimate the power of their real social network and what friendship or love can do to motivate people to maintain relationships. Canning your account is also a good way to cull relationships not worth maintaining. In my case it was around 70% of my contacts, leaving 30% who I gave a damn about. The ultimate tool for social networking is still at my disposal - the mobile phone. Facebook is a middle-man. A relationship broker. Some advice for anyone who plans on closing their Facebook account: scrape any photos with you in them (and anyone you have an affinity for), phone numbers and the big one: birthdays. My calendar reminds me when someone has a birthday and their phone numbers sit in my contacts list.

nitrogen 11y ago
I haven't had a Facebook account for 3 years and while that was my main concern, I found that any event worth going to the organizer would simply call, message or email you because they wanted you to be there. People vastly underestimate the power of their real social network and what friendship or love can do to motivate people to maintain relationships. Based on the comments people make about how essential Facebook is, it seems that not everyone has the luxury of such friendships. Maybe it's because they grew up in a military family that moved around frequently, or they came from a small town where nobody shared their interests, etc. They still might want the company of the fair weather friends who only invite them to do stuff via mass events on Facebook.
- TeMPOraL 11y ago
  > Maybe it's because they grew up in a military family that moved around frequently, or they came from a small town where nobody shared their interests, etc. They still might want the company of the fair weather friends who only invite them to do stuff via mass events on Facebook. Or maybe they're just... normal, regular adults? The kind that met their friends in school and university, and then had to split with most of them because some were from out of town, other moved; everyone now has a job and responsibilities and any tool that lets you maintain relationships without crazy amount of micromanagement is a very useful thing? Some comments try to marginalize Facebook as if it was something weird. It isn't. It's normal to use it. That's what regular folks do.

aaronmhatch 11y ago

"And in 2015 everyone is on Facebook" Not even close. Check some statistics on how many (or few) teenagers use it.

bigbugbag 11y ago

I'm not on facebook never will be, many people are not. Some do not have broadband internet access, other do not have internet access at all or even a computer. Can you believe this, there are people who do not have consistent electricity. Obviously not everyone is on facebook in 2015 and this is something that will simply not happen.

ryandrake 11y ago

Being "on Facebook" does not imply that one loses access to other forms of communication. I'm not a Facebook user, but a few of my friends are (presumably). They still respond to E-mails and they still answer phone calls. I've never encountered anyone who claimed that as soon as they signed up for Facebook, they lost Grandma's phone number.