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The once-child policy has been gradually weakened for some time. It will be interesting to see the future population trend in China. I can see it going one of t

The once-child policy has been gradually weakened for some time. It will be interesting to see the future population trend in China. I can see it going one of two ways: 1. Multiple children has previously been reserved to those with political connections or money. Now that everyone can have two they will jump at the opportunity. or 2. Almost every young person in China has grown up in a single child family and sees it as the normal family. Social norms are also based around parents dedicating a lot of resources to one child. So they continue to have only one child. In about a decade China may have to start encouraging people to have more children, like Japan.

neolefty 11y ago
I like that question, and I've asked a few people here (I live in Chengdu, China) about it. Anecdotally, it's some of both. City people tend to view raising a child as very expensive, mainly because of education, so many expect they can only afford one. And since that has become the new norm, they're comfortable with that. But many also plan to have two children. Most I've met who already have a child and could feasibly have a second, don't plan to. I suspect they've already gone through the decision to only have one and don't want to revisit it. However, I don't know what the rural attitudes are, since I haven't talked with people in the countryside. I think China's demographic future looks a lot like South Korea's or Japan's, with a shortage of young people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan
- zhemao 11y ago
  > I don't know what the rural attitudes are, since I haven't talked with people in the countryside Rural families have largely been exempted from the one-child policy for a while now. This new development won't change anything for people living in the countryside. > I think China's demographic future looks a lot like South Korea's or Japan's Yeah, China already has an issue with a rapidly aging population. It's called the 4-2-1 problem (4 grandparents, 2 parents, 1 child). But this happens in most developed countries. For instance, the average age in the US would be much higher if it weren't for immigration. The native birth rate isn't very high.

neolefty 11y ago

I like that question, and I've asked a few people here (I live in Chengdu, China) about it. Anecdotally, it's some of both. City people tend to view raising a child as very expensive, mainly because of education, so many expect they can only afford one. And since that has become the new norm, they're comfortable with that. But many also plan to have two children. Most I've met who already have a child and could feasibly have a second, don't plan to. I suspect they've already gone through the decision to only have one and don't want to revisit it. However, I don't know what the rural attitudes are, since I haven't talked with people in the countryside. I think China's demographic future looks a lot like South Korea's or Japan's, with a shortage of young people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan

zhemao 11y ago
> I don't know what the rural attitudes are, since I haven't talked with people in the countryside Rural families have largely been exempted from the one-child policy for a while now. This new development won't change anything for people living in the countryside. > I think China's demographic future looks a lot like South Korea's or Japan's Yeah, China already has an issue with a rapidly aging population. It's called the 4-2-1 problem (4 grandparents, 2 parents, 1 child). But this happens in most developed countries. For instance, the average age in the US would be much higher if it weren't for immigration. The native birth rate isn't very high.