4 ms·

Bob Lutz thinks Tesla is doomed

9 points by jaysonelliot 11y ago

ztratar 11y ago
His logic is relatively weak. His proposal for Tesla to build a hybrid is laughable. This is why Bob Lutz is old guard.
- halleym 11y ago
  Everything about the Tesla vehicles is based on them not being a hybrid. The entire design would have to be scrapped. Ha ha ha.
OrwellianChild 11y ago
Previous commentary here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10454706 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10454706 Re-posting my comment from the prior conversation: Bob Lutz is the author. He's moonlighting as a talking head after being the consummate insider of the automotive industry in the United States, having worked for all of the Big 3 (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) as well as BMW [1]. This is pretty much like taking your advice on smoking cigarettes from R.J. Reynolds. [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Lutz_(businessman) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Lutz_(businessman) [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._J._Reynolds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._J._Reynolds
sandstrom 11y ago
# Gasoline is cheap True, though in Europe prices are 200-300% higher[1]. Mostly because European countries tax gasoline heavily, because of it's negative environmental impact. Probably not an issue for expensive vehicles (no-one buy them for fuel savings), but will be for cheaper models. # Battery tech isn't special I think this is a good point. I'd guess other auto-makers can do this fairly easily, as long as they do it at scale (and they are good at scale in other areas). # Company stores doesn't work As I've understood it they don't carry inventory in their stores, it's only a showroom -- even in countries where they are allowed to sell directly to consumers (all except the US). Cars still ordered, i.e. no inventory (except for test-drive). # Model X won't sell I guess it's a bit too early to tell, but it seems like they are mainly production-limited right now (which is a problem in it's own right!). === I think a major factor is being overlooked, which will determine both the fate of Tesla and other car-makers: software. I'd guess 75% of innovation in cars during the next 10 years will be in software. The company that does this best will do really well. Tesla should be well-positioned. [1] http://autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-europe.html#.VjE6Ha6rSHs http://autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-europe.html#...

9 points by jaysonelliot 11y ago

ztratar 11y ago

His logic is relatively weak. His proposal for Tesla to build a hybrid is laughable. This is why Bob Lutz is old guard.

halleym 11y ago
Everything about the Tesla vehicles is based on them not being a hybrid. The entire design would have to be scrapped. Ha ha ha.

OrwellianChild 11y ago

Previous commentary here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10454706 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10454706 Re-posting my comment from the prior conversation: Bob Lutz is the author. He's moonlighting as a talking head after being the consummate insider of the automotive industry in the United States, having worked for all of the Big 3 (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) as well as BMW [1]. This is pretty much like taking your advice on smoking cigarettes from R.J. Reynolds. [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Lutz_(businessman) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Lutz_(businessman) [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._J._Reynolds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._J._Reynolds

sandstrom 11y ago

# Gasoline is cheap True, though in Europe prices are 200-300% higher[1]. Mostly because European countries tax gasoline heavily, because of it's negative environmental impact. Probably not an issue for expensive vehicles (no-one buy them for fuel savings), but will be for cheaper models. # Battery tech isn't special I think this is a good point. I'd guess other auto-makers can do this fairly easily, as long as they do it at scale (and they are good at scale in other areas). # Company stores doesn't work As I've understood it they don't carry inventory in their stores, it's only a showroom -- even in countries where they are allowed to sell directly to consumers (all except the US). Cars still ordered, i.e. no inventory (except for test-drive). # Model X won't sell I guess it's a bit too early to tell, but it seems like they are mainly production-limited right now (which is a problem in it's own right!). === I think a major factor is being overlooked, which will determine both the fate of Tesla and other car-makers: software. I'd guess 75% of innovation in cars during the next 10 years will be in software. The company that does this best will do really well. Tesla should be well-positioned. [1] http://autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-europe.html#.VjE6Ha6rSHs http://autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-europe.html#...