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Wall Street is never about the now it's about betting on the future. Apple has a single, massive, product. But growth is slowing due to saturation and they don'

Wall Street is never about the now it's about betting on the future. Apple has a single, massive, product. But growth is slowing due to saturation and they don't have anything else. Amazon meanwhile is gobbling up commerce and has now become the dominant player in cloud infrastructure which still has massive upside. They would appear to have far more upside than Apple today.

mikeyouse 11y ago
Just to be clear, this is the chart that shows how much the growth of Apple's 1 product is "slowing".. https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/659107811549274112 https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/659107811549274112
- jusben1369 11y ago
  "Our early take is that the guidance seems to imply flattish (74-76 million) iPhones for December," wrote Apple analyst Gene Munster in a note shortly after the numbers were released. He added, "This would imply iPhone units down 1% to up 2% year-over-year. We view this as a relief given investors were bracing for the start of the 6S cycle to be down meaningfully (down 5-8% y/y)."
  - mikeyouse 11y ago
    They made like $240B revenue in the quarter.. 30% of new iPhone sales are to people switching from Android. That second paragraph is key, iPhone sales are very uneven given the Apple upgrade and refresh cycle. Even Gene Munster, who you're quoting, is expecting them to sell ~242 million iPhones in CY2016, which is a 5% YoY increase on an absolutely massive base. From a summary of his research report; Finally, Munster is also bullish on Apple's anticipated "iPhone 7," which he believes will begin driving investor hype in the coming months, despite not being expected to debut until September of 2016. With a so- called "iPhone 7" expected to introduce a revamped design, he believes next year's upgrade will be a "more revolutionary cycle," driving sales of the blockbuster handset even higher. I guess technically, 5% YoY is slowing growth since their earlier performance was absolutely insane, but their iPhone ASP is still increasing to ~$675, so with 40% margins, 10 million incremental phones is another $2.7B in profits.
    - jusben1369 11y ago
      Trust me I'm not bashing Apple. I think what they've done is amazing. It's just that there are signs of this being a saturated, or at least slowing, market.

mikeyouse 11y ago

Just to be clear, this is the chart that shows how much the growth of Apple's 1 product is "slowing".. https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/659107811549274112 https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/659107811549274112

jusben1369 11y ago
"Our early take is that the guidance seems to imply flattish (74-76 million) iPhones for December," wrote Apple analyst Gene Munster in a note shortly after the numbers were released. He added, "This would imply iPhone units down 1% to up 2% year-over-year. We view this as a relief given investors were bracing for the start of the 6S cycle to be down meaningfully (down 5-8% y/y)."
- mikeyouse 11y ago
  They made like $240B revenue in the quarter.. 30% of new iPhone sales are to people switching from Android. That second paragraph is key, iPhone sales are very uneven given the Apple upgrade and refresh cycle. Even Gene Munster, who you're quoting, is expecting them to sell ~242 million iPhones in CY2016, which is a 5% YoY increase on an absolutely massive base. From a summary of his research report; Finally, Munster is also bullish on Apple's anticipated "iPhone 7," which he believes will begin driving investor hype in the coming months, despite not being expected to debut until September of 2016. With a so- called "iPhone 7" expected to introduce a revamped design, he believes next year's upgrade will be a "more revolutionary cycle," driving sales of the blockbuster handset even higher. I guess technically, 5% YoY is slowing growth since their earlier performance was absolutely insane, but their iPhone ASP is still increasing to ~$675, so with 40% margins, 10 million incremental phones is another $2.7B in profits.
  - jusben1369 11y ago
    Trust me I'm not bashing Apple. I think what they've done is amazing. It's just that there are signs of this being a saturated, or at least slowing, market.