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I wouldn't say there's a ton of market share to be grabbed: the global economy is suffering from a savings glut. Chinese manufacturing dominates entire industr
by ryandamm 11y ago
I wouldn't say there's a ton of market share to be grabbed: the global economy is suffering from a savings glut. Chinese manufacturing dominates entire industries, and already other countries in Asia are offering lower-cost alternatives for labor (e.g., textiles in Vietnam).
In practice, China has driven down the cost of many finished goods (while driving up the cost of commodities) through its investment in manufacturing capacity and infrastructure. Its latest investments were probably non-economic; in other words, they will never pay back the principal due to overbuilding both capacity and infrastructure.
On the infrastructure side, there are entire cities with almost no inhabitants. These 'ghost cities' exist as hedges against principal-robbing inflation -- Chinese households have used property as a stable store of savings since traditional bank deposits and investment vehicles return below-inflation rates of return. This has inflated multiple speculative bubbles in Chinese real estate; the actual reckoning probably has yet to arrive.
On the capacity side, it's the same story. To choose a single, specific example: over 50% of Chinese steel capacity is lying idle; there have simply been too many factories built in the past ten years. The price of solar in the past few years has dropped precipitously because of Chinese over-investment in production capacity -- just ask Solyndra. The price of solar plummeted below what anyone predicted because of China's state capitalism, and a mandate to gobble the market share in the solar industry. (In this case, at least, there are positive externalities.) Chinese solar panel manufacturers are not making profits due to the intense competition and oversupply in the market.
The list is long. So no, there's isn't much 'market share' left to steal. China needs to build its domestic consumption share of the economy, by building its service sector and stoking domestic demand -- basically by making its citizens richer and selling to themselves. That's the only way forward, at least according to Professor Pettis.