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My post was meant to be about uncaptured economic effects and risk. The "Peak Oil" crowd as I understand them, are concerned that oil field production will sto

by mschy 17y ago

My post was meant to be about uncaptured economic effects and risk. The "Peak Oil" crowd as I understand them, are concerned that oil field production will stop growing, while demand continues to rise, and the price of oil could grow fairly rapidly, with hard to predict economic effects. As such, they tend to advocate the development of higher efficiency consumption and exploration of alternative forms of energy while oil is still cheap. It's basically a position that calls on innovation today to avoid a problem altogether, or to soften the blow by laying some groundwork. You clearly prefer a position where you don't innovate until your back is against the wall, and you mock anybody who does it earlier, and accuse them of not believing in innovation. Whatever. I don't even care.

cwan 17y ago
"You clearly prefer a position where you don't innovate until your back is against the wall, and you mock anybody who does it earlier, and accuse them of not believing in innovation." Where is the mocking? Again, the point being that the concerns over peak oil are wholly unnecessary - further to assume that anyone who uses the word "endless" in the context of any finite physical resource is hardly "dumb" as was suggested. Prices create the incentives for innovation - and that's not just when "your back is up against a wall" (any number of cheap emerging technologies being good examples). For someone who doesn't care, you seem terribly emotional and intent on personalizing the issue.
- mschy 17y ago
  Some people, given the same price curves and risk profiles, will take advocate action sooner than others. The opinions of those who are later on that curve are not more valid than the opinions of those who are sooner on it, or vice versa. The people who advocate action sooner do not disbelieve in innovation. They just have different risk and utility functions, and these result in different advocated actions.

by mschy 17y ago

cwan 17y ago

"You clearly prefer a position where you don't innovate until your back is against the wall, and you mock anybody who does it earlier, and accuse them of not believing in innovation." Where is the mocking? Again, the point being that the concerns over peak oil are wholly unnecessary - further to assume that anyone who uses the word "endless" in the context of any finite physical resource is hardly "dumb" as was suggested. Prices create the incentives for innovation - and that's not just when "your back is up against a wall" (any number of cheap emerging technologies being good examples). For someone who doesn't care, you seem terribly emotional and intent on personalizing the issue.

mschy 17y ago
Some people, given the same price curves and risk profiles, will take advocate action sooner than others. The opinions of those who are later on that curve are not more valid than the opinions of those who are sooner on it, or vice versa. The people who advocate action sooner do not disbelieve in innovation. They just have different risk and utility functions, and these result in different advocated actions.