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> but what? People making candles couldn't imagine another set of people would be employed for years making light bulbs. Newspaper owners, investors, writers

> but what? People making candles couldn't imagine another set of people would be employed for years making light bulbs. Newspaper owners, investors, writers and workers could not foresee the Internet. Nobody could imagine making money with software that played back fart sounds or allowed you to launch an angry bird into a structure. The point is: Not being able to answer the question is of no consequence. Progress and change will still happen despite our collective lack of imagination and malfunctioning crystal balls.

Sammi 11y ago
But all the progress is only going in the direction of automation. The long term macro trend is clear. Why do we have so many pointless jobs today?
- rebootthesystem 11y ago
  > The long term macro trend is clear. Not to me. If I had to make an attempt to predict the future I'd say there might be two trends. And they are opposite extremes: First, the good jobs require more and more knowledge. Second, automation, as you suggested, might result in jobs where very little knowledge is necessary. "Push this button. If that light turns red, push that button". Then again, even in what could be seen as "push-button jobs" a great deal of knowledge and experience is required. One extreme example might be industrial CNC machines. You can, quite literally, push a button and watch it go. However, doing this without knowledge and experience would result in disaster. I don't have a bleak view of the future. I recognize we are really, really bad at predicting it. Worrying about this is probably a waste of time. In a place like the US even the poor live significantly better than they the "middle class" lived 500 to 100 years ago. We must be doing something right.
  - dllthomas 11y ago
    "Push this button. If that light turns red, push that button" That's not a job. That's something automated away in a day or two.

Sammi 11y ago

But all the progress is only going in the direction of automation. The long term macro trend is clear. Why do we have so many pointless jobs today?

rebootthesystem 11y ago
> The long term macro trend is clear. Not to me. If I had to make an attempt to predict the future I'd say there might be two trends. And they are opposite extremes: First, the good jobs require more and more knowledge. Second, automation, as you suggested, might result in jobs where very little knowledge is necessary. "Push this button. If that light turns red, push that button". Then again, even in what could be seen as "push-button jobs" a great deal of knowledge and experience is required. One extreme example might be industrial CNC machines. You can, quite literally, push a button and watch it go. However, doing this without knowledge and experience would result in disaster. I don't have a bleak view of the future. I recognize we are really, really bad at predicting it. Worrying about this is probably a waste of time. In a place like the US even the poor live significantly better than they the "middle class" lived 500 to 100 years ago. We must be doing something right.
- dllthomas 11y ago
  "Push this button. If that light turns red, push that button" That's not a job. That's something automated away in a day or two.