If you look at the Bayesian analyses and the frequentist analyses assuming she knew how many AD shirts there would be, you'd see that point 1 doesn't matter. We

If you look at the Bayesian analyses and the frequentist analyses assuming she knew how many AD shirts there would be, you'd see that point 1 doesn't matter. We can statistically test this without the need to make her sniff 1000's of shirts. Point 2 is interesting though, and the first thoughtful criticism I've seen in the thread. What if she's both a bit lucky, and also picking up on some correlated marker like age/gender?