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Crime rates have plummeted since we have started being "tough on crime". We are all much safer than we were decades ago. Isn't our incarceration system working?

Crime rates have plummeted since we have started being "tough on crime". We are all much safer than we were decades ago. Isn't our incarceration system working? What's the issue here? http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/figure_3.jpg http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/figure_...

ryandrake 11y ago
You'd need to show a causal relationship to make that argument.
- happyscrappy 11y ago
  More criminals behind bars, lower crime. It may not fit your narrative but it should not be hard to understand.
  - ryandrake 11y ago
    I'm not arguing for any particular "narrative" although you seem to be. You seem to be suggesting that more criminals behind bars leads to lower crime. Is there any evidence that this is true? Could this be a coincidence, or could there be some other factor lowering crime? Are you jumping to conclusions based on your own favorite narrative? The OP similarly lists two facts and then jumps to the same conclusion: Crime rates have plummeted, and we are all much safer than we were decades ago. (Therefore) our incarceration system working? I think to make that claim one must "show one's work".
    - happyscrappy 11y ago
      >Could this be a coincidence It could be aliens, but Occams razor. Criminals cannot commit crimes if they are in prison. It is quite revealing that people willfully deny that and the narrative is the cop is the perp and the perp is the victim.
rmchugh 11y ago
As far as I'm aware the evidence points to a correlation between sentence length and recidivism.
jegutman 11y ago
Really, so if your neighbor smokes pot in his home that's a safety issue for you? It's possible that as a result of policy changes we're arresting and keeping incarcerated more people who would have committed crimes, but at the same time we're likely keeping many people in prison who would likely not commit crimes. The aggregate loss of human freedom and productivity is pretty staggering for you to just wash your hands of the problem.
- darkroasted 11y ago
  Only .7% of those in prison are there for marijuana possession as their only crime - https://www.ncjrs.gov/ondcppubs/publications/pdf/whos_in_prison_for_marij.pdf https://www.ncjrs.gov/ondcppubs/publications/pdf/whos_in_pri... And among those possession could mean as much as 100 pounds. The idea that our prisons are full of people who were just smoking pot in their own homes is ludicrous. Whatever our views on whether it is sane to make marijuana illegal, locking up pot smokers is not the cause of mass incarceration.
jkestner 11y ago
Statistics are subject to manipulation of the definitions. Not saying this is happening here, but for instance, if you put ticky-tack new offenses on the books that are easily enforceable, then the crime _rate_ will "plummet" while not actually addressing existing problems. We should not take definitions at face value.

ryandrake 11y ago

You'd need to show a causal relationship to make that argument.

happyscrappy 11y ago
More criminals behind bars, lower crime. It may not fit your narrative but it should not be hard to understand.
- ryandrake 11y ago
  I'm not arguing for any particular "narrative" although you seem to be. You seem to be suggesting that more criminals behind bars leads to lower crime. Is there any evidence that this is true? Could this be a coincidence, or could there be some other factor lowering crime? Are you jumping to conclusions based on your own favorite narrative? The OP similarly lists two facts and then jumps to the same conclusion: Crime rates have plummeted, and we are all much safer than we were decades ago. (Therefore) our incarceration system working? I think to make that claim one must "show one's work".
  - happyscrappy 11y ago
    >Could this be a coincidence It could be aliens, but Occams razor. Criminals cannot commit crimes if they are in prison. It is quite revealing that people willfully deny that and the narrative is the cop is the perp and the perp is the victim.

rmchugh 11y ago

As far as I'm aware the evidence points to a correlation between sentence length and recidivism.

jegutman 11y ago

Really, so if your neighbor smokes pot in his home that's a safety issue for you? It's possible that as a result of policy changes we're arresting and keeping incarcerated more people who would have committed crimes, but at the same time we're likely keeping many people in prison who would likely not commit crimes. The aggregate loss of human freedom and productivity is pretty staggering for you to just wash your hands of the problem.

darkroasted 11y ago
Only .7% of those in prison are there for marijuana possession as their only crime - https://www.ncjrs.gov/ondcppubs/publications/pdf/whos_in_prison_for_marij.pdf https://www.ncjrs.gov/ondcppubs/publications/pdf/whos_in_pri... And among those possession could mean as much as 100 pounds. The idea that our prisons are full of people who were just smoking pot in their own homes is ludicrous. Whatever our views on whether it is sane to make marijuana illegal, locking up pot smokers is not the cause of mass incarceration.

jkestner 11y ago

Statistics are subject to manipulation of the definitions. Not saying this is happening here, but for instance, if you put ticky-tack new offenses on the books that are easily enforceable, then the crime _rate_ will "plummet" while not actually addressing existing problems. We should not take definitions at face value.