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Total volume of privately owned vehicles isn't going to dramatically decrease because of the new slightly more convenient option of private taxis. The set of p

Total volume of privately owned vehicles isn't going to dramatically decrease because of the new slightly more convenient option of private taxis. The set of privately owned vehicles is going to decrease as a function of increase in population density and truly alternative transportation options. It still takes a while to find an Uber driver in lower density areas, and in both the City and the Suburbs, alternative services like Curb and myTaxi have been leveling the competitive gap between Uber's microservice taxis and traditional taxis. But an Uber-facilitated ride-for-hire is still a taxi ride, albeit one that's easier to schedule. Cars will go away when people don't need them. Yes, some people wealthy enough to afford to take a taxi everywhere are going to get rid of their cars. And it does constitute further saturating a market with car hiring options. But folks that don't live within walking distance to daily needs like their bank, grocery stores, barber, doctor... are going to rack up extra costs switching to hired cars. If your town grows 2x or 4x and suddenly there's a grocery store two blocks down? Less need to get in the car. In those scenarios, eventually yes you're going to see the cars-per-person go down. I'm rehashing I suppose, but fleets of subscription-service autonomous cars will be the next big disruptor. This is where Uber could make that big dent -- when you have a stable cadre of always-on, always-ready people movers, optimally distributed for service, picking up and dropping people off. These could replace that second car, or the beater you keep limping along to get down the highway to work.

nthj 11y ago
> But folks that don't live within walking distance to daily needs like their bank, grocery stores, barber, doctor... are going to rack up extra costs switching to hired cars. This may be a bit too simple. Technology is solving these problems, too. Online banking continues to improve. Instacart is expanding to more cities. People are consulting with doctors over FaceTime for a flat fee. Many other errands can be batched up into one day a week or month. With all these improvements combined together, Uber becomes an economic choice for many people sooner than later. (I have saved ~60% on car costs over the past year by switching to Uber exclusively. I realize not everyone is in the exact situation I am, but I'm not riding Uber because I have money to throw away.)
- ghaff 11y ago
  It's certainly fair that Uber + Zipcar + online banking + grocery delivery + etc. can make a difference in the need for car ownership at the margins. For example, I know a couple in San Francisco who don't own a car and I think it's fair to say that they would not have been able to manage this 10 to 20 years ago--at least without making a lot more compromises.
  - mattlutze 11y ago
    Yeah, the linchpin for me there is living in an area with high population density and a diverse transportation infrastructure.
- mattlutze 11y ago
  There's a conversation to be had about the changes in our communities' psyches as we start to isolate ourselves further through all this "do it at home" technology, in both rural and urban areas. Is it a good thing for me and my social graph that I don't have to leave my cul de sac to do almost any of these social commons activities? But yeah on your personal anecdote, a few years ago I moved from the suburbs of a larger city to the center of a larger city, so in that respect I too have seen pretty substantial savings getting rid of my car and just using public transportation and cabs when necessary. If I lived outside the center, though, I'd still be appreciably encumbered and spend more if I just took cabs from my house to get anywhere. Can you give us the low-down on your living situation? As in, are you out in the sticks or in a flat downtown somewhere? It's good to frame info like that in the living situation so we can understand its applicability.

nthj 11y ago

> But folks that don't live within walking distance to daily needs like their bank, grocery stores, barber, doctor... are going to rack up extra costs switching to hired cars. This may be a bit too simple. Technology is solving these problems, too. Online banking continues to improve. Instacart is expanding to more cities. People are consulting with doctors over FaceTime for a flat fee. Many other errands can be batched up into one day a week or month. With all these improvements combined together, Uber becomes an economic choice for many people sooner than later. (I have saved ~60% on car costs over the past year by switching to Uber exclusively. I realize not everyone is in the exact situation I am, but I'm not riding Uber because I have money to throw away.)

ghaff 11y ago
It's certainly fair that Uber + Zipcar + online banking + grocery delivery + etc. can make a difference in the need for car ownership at the margins. For example, I know a couple in San Francisco who don't own a car and I think it's fair to say that they would not have been able to manage this 10 to 20 years ago--at least without making a lot more compromises.
- mattlutze 11y ago
  Yeah, the linchpin for me there is living in an area with high population density and a diverse transportation infrastructure.
mattlutze 11y ago
There's a conversation to be had about the changes in our communities' psyches as we start to isolate ourselves further through all this "do it at home" technology, in both rural and urban areas. Is it a good thing for me and my social graph that I don't have to leave my cul de sac to do almost any of these social commons activities? But yeah on your personal anecdote, a few years ago I moved from the suburbs of a larger city to the center of a larger city, so in that respect I too have seen pretty substantial savings getting rid of my car and just using public transportation and cabs when necessary. If I lived outside the center, though, I'd still be appreciably encumbered and spend more if I just took cabs from my house to get anywhere. Can you give us the low-down on your living situation? As in, are you out in the sticks or in a flat downtown somewhere? It's good to frame info like that in the living situation so we can understand its applicability.