4 ms·

Number 1 is the Dunning Kruger effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect (A favourite

Number 1 is the Dunning Kruger effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect (A favourite of mine and a regular on HN I bet)

ak39 11y ago
Ok, so now let's use this new-found wisdom we have about our D-K blind spot. How do we ensure that we don't both fall into a D-K blind spot scenario and we don't ever act (make decisions)? Is the D-K "wisdom" useful?
- sjclemmy 11y ago
  I haven't the faintest idea. I say stupid stuff all the time. Also - I tend toward the more negative end of the spectrum, i.e. I don't have the confidence, but I'm probably smarter than 90% of the population. Aaaand - as a Brit - Just saying that is making me cringe with embarrassment.
  - planfaster 11y ago
    Smarter than 90% of the population would be an IQ of 120 (s.d. 15) which is pretty high. You can test yourself here: http://www.iqtest.dk/ http://www.iqtest.dk/ . Let us know if you got your 120. :)
- maxerickson 11y ago
  When starting an unfamiliar task, seek out an objective way to measure your performance of the task. Use it. A different way to phrase the wisdom is that accurate self assessment is a valuable learning aid.
riskneural 11y ago
The following contradiction is pasted from the British actuarial notes: (hopefully within the terms of fair use) "Overconfidence People tend to overestimate their own abilities, knowledge and skills. For example, if you ask 100 people if they are better than average drivers, then you might not be surprised if more than 50% of them reply “yes”! Moreover, studies show that the discrepancy between accuracy and overconfidence increases (in all but the simplest tasks) as the respondent is more knowledgeable! (Accuracy increases to a modest degree but confidence increases to a much larger degree. ) If this is true then it may not be wise to pass the Subject ST5 exam! Overconfidence could therefore be a potentially serious problem in fields such as investment where most of the participants are likely to be highly knowledgeable. Moreover, the available evidence suggests that even when people are aware that they are overconfident they remain so."
- visakanv 11y ago
  > People tend to overestimate their own abilities, knowledge and skills. For example, if you ask 100 people if they are better than average drivers, then you might not be surprised if more than 50% of them reply “yes”! Also people don't actually need to think they're great drivers to think this– there's a selection bias at play. We remember every single time some other driver almost killed us, far more than we notice when people are driving nice and smooth.
  - tremon 11y ago
    It's also a bad example. "A better driver" is a subjective term and may mean different things to different people. In fact, I would be surprised if fewer than 60% of drivers were in the top 50% when measured objectively on their own criteria.
- krkoch 11y ago
  > if you ask 100 people if they are better than average drivers, then you might not be surprised if more than 50% of them reply “yes”! Isn't it fully possible that most people are better than the average? Most people e.g. have more arms than average.
  - refurb 11y ago
    Exactly. If you had a very low outlier, you could easily have >75% smarter than average and it would be accurate.
  - riskneural 11y ago
    The arms distribution is an unusual example of a left skewed distribution. Mostly we are thinking of right skewed distributions, where there are lots of observations humped up towards zero, and then they spread out towards infinity, or symmetrical distributions. In the latter two cases the average would be above or equal to the median, so most people would be worse than or equal to the average.

Number 1 is the Dunning Kruger effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect (A favourite of mine and a regular on HN I bet)

ak39 11y ago

Ok, so now let's use this new-found wisdom we have about our D-K blind spot. How do we ensure that we don't both fall into a D-K blind spot scenario and we don't ever act (make decisions)? Is the D-K "wisdom" useful?

sjclemmy 11y ago
I haven't the faintest idea. I say stupid stuff all the time. Also - I tend toward the more negative end of the spectrum, i.e. I don't have the confidence, but I'm probably smarter than 90% of the population. Aaaand - as a Brit - Just saying that is making me cringe with embarrassment.
- planfaster 11y ago
  Smarter than 90% of the population would be an IQ of 120 (s.d. 15) which is pretty high. You can test yourself here: http://www.iqtest.dk/ http://www.iqtest.dk/ . Let us know if you got your 120. :)
maxerickson 11y ago
When starting an unfamiliar task, seek out an objective way to measure your performance of the task. Use it. A different way to phrase the wisdom is that accurate self assessment is a valuable learning aid.

riskneural 11y ago

The following contradiction is pasted from the British actuarial notes: (hopefully within the terms of fair use) "Overconfidence People tend to overestimate their own abilities, knowledge and skills. For example, if you ask 100 people if they are better than average drivers, then you might not be surprised if more than 50% of them reply “yes”! Moreover, studies show that the discrepancy between accuracy and overconfidence increases (in all but the simplest tasks) as the respondent is more knowledgeable! (Accuracy increases to a modest degree but confidence increases to a much larger degree. ) If this is true then it may not be wise to pass the Subject ST5 exam! Overconfidence could therefore be a potentially serious problem in fields such as investment where most of the participants are likely to be highly knowledgeable. Moreover, the available evidence suggests that even when people are aware that they are overconfident they remain so."

visakanv 11y ago
> People tend to overestimate their own abilities, knowledge and skills. For example, if you ask 100 people if they are better than average drivers, then you might not be surprised if more than 50% of them reply “yes”! Also people don't actually need to think they're great drivers to think this– there's a selection bias at play. We remember every single time some other driver almost killed us, far more than we notice when people are driving nice and smooth.
- tremon 11y ago
  It's also a bad example. "A better driver" is a subjective term and may mean different things to different people. In fact, I would be surprised if fewer than 60% of drivers were in the top 50% when measured objectively on their own criteria.
krkoch 11y ago
> if you ask 100 people if they are better than average drivers, then you might not be surprised if more than 50% of them reply “yes”! Isn't it fully possible that most people are better than the average? Most people e.g. have more arms than average.
- refurb 11y ago
  Exactly. If you had a very low outlier, you could easily have >75% smarter than average and it would be accurate.
- riskneural 11y ago
  The arms distribution is an unusual example of a left skewed distribution. Mostly we are thinking of right skewed distributions, where there are lots of observations humped up towards zero, and then they spread out towards infinity, or symmetrical distributions. In the latter two cases the average would be above or equal to the median, so most people would be worse than or equal to the average.