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> Acting in a way that isn't considered stupid is a goal shared by most reasonable people, but many of them likely overlook one key attribute that might allow t

by avmich 11y ago

> Acting in a way that isn't considered stupid is a goal shared by most reasonable people, but many of them likely overlook one key attribute that might allow them to better achieve it: modesty. Unfortunately that doesn't pay. We're somehow encouraged to take risks here.

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
njohnson41 11y ago
I suspect that's an important part of why confident ignorance is seen as the "stupidest" trait. Being confident has social advantages, so without a significant risk of looking stupid for overlooking something, everyone would try to be confident all the time, and confidence would have a very low signal-to-noise ratio for determining who to trust.
- avmich 11y ago
  The problem is that a lot of people are constantly trying to look confident, but trying to avoid paying for mistakes at the same time. They prefer situations when their confidence is hard to check. A whole culture is developed around that and Scott Adams' Dilbert series has large supply of situations when confidence trumps modesty.
  - RangerScience 11y ago
    Oh, that's a good point. I wonder if the study would produce different results if the people in the overconfidence situations owned up to their failures? Or maybe it'd be considered just as stupid an action, but not done by as stupid a person...?
  - kordless 11y ago
    > trying to avoid paying for mistakes at the same time I observe that many people appear to be successful at avoiding their own suffering and offload it to someone else. It's far easier to blame someone else and judge them harshly, than accept our own hand in the matter. Looking confident is simply avoidance of work, or more bluntly, just being lazy.
jakejake 11y ago
The fear of looking stupid is probably what stops most people from ever doing anything interesting. I do see an occasional startup fumblebrag and think to myself "that was a stupid idea." But I rarely think anybody is stupid for trying.
- tertius 11y ago
  I think there's a difference between the fear you speak of and modesty. I can be modest and not have a fear of looking stupid. I just refrain from being stupid through modesty. When it matters I take risks and may be considered stupid, but as you say not stupid for trying.
- mirimir 11y ago
  > "If you don't want to do something stupid, you probably don't want to have higher expectations of your abilities than you should," Balazs said. "The worst thing someone can do is act confidently, and seriously, and still not act rationally. That's as stupid as it gets." That, in my opinion, is totally stupid ;) It's hard to assess ones abilities without risk of looking stupid. But of course, one must hedge the bet prudently.
  - ak39 11y ago
    Indeed. If ALL we're interested in is what others /think/ of us, then by all means let's hedge our bets in that regard. If looking stupid however is a byproduct of a longer journey to achieving something, then who cares what others think about our intelligence or our paraded stupidity. But if looking stupid affects our chances of achieving what we set out to achieve, then we should be more circumspect before acting.
tertius 11y ago
Not an American, but living in the U.S. That quote is fairly eye opening. My culture is quite a bit more modest than the general American culture, to a degree that "confident" Americans are fairly annoying for not being modest. That's a very good way to put it, and yes, you're right, it's ingrained in this (HN/Tech) and the more general American culture.
- napperjabber 11y ago
  I don't know how to explain it. It's fucking annoying. While programming, I have to remain focused and mentally aware. While talking to anyone at work, I have to act like a ditzzy vally girl or hippy of some type. If I don't do this, I'm pegged as a threat. I've found that I can really only get shit done in a remote office, otherwise I'm circle jerking the whole staff. In short, some of us Americans hate it too.
  - visakanv 11y ago
    > While talking to anyone at work, I have to act like a ditzzy vally girl or hippy of some type. If I don't do this, I'm pegged as a threat. That's hilarious. I'm just sitting here imagining a bunch of hippies and valley girls eyeing a tired, geeky programmer and going "Oh my god he is like such a threat to our organization??"
    - a3n 11y ago
      "He's harshing our facade."
- saiya-jin 11y ago
  to be honest, to most cultures out here/there general average American is by far the loudest person around, beyond any modesty. Usually not really appreciated, and the more traditional (ie didn't change that much in last 500 years) the culture is, the worse the effect. Personally I like it, a very different approach to self-presentation, that in some situations is more effective than usual shy polite careful... whatever,. But if you go backpacking in remote places somewhere in south asia for example, it can cause a bit of friction with locals sometimes.
jk4930 11y ago
If we take calculated risks where we know about the small probability of success (in the case of startups) and perhaps employ risk-mitigating measures and justify the whole enterprise with the problem to be solved or the possible payoff, we're still confident but not ignorant (and thus stupid). I don't experience that people call me somehow stupid for what I do. Perhaps because I tell them I know about the dangers, how I manage them, that my approach is not necessarily the best approach for other people (invalidating their choices).

by avmich 11y ago

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

njohnson41 11y ago

I suspect that's an important part of why confident ignorance is seen as the "stupidest" trait. Being confident has social advantages, so without a significant risk of looking stupid for overlooking something, everyone would try to be confident all the time, and confidence would have a very low signal-to-noise ratio for determining who to trust.

avmich 11y ago
The problem is that a lot of people are constantly trying to look confident, but trying to avoid paying for mistakes at the same time. They prefer situations when their confidence is hard to check. A whole culture is developed around that and Scott Adams' Dilbert series has large supply of situations when confidence trumps modesty.
- RangerScience 11y ago
  Oh, that's a good point. I wonder if the study would produce different results if the people in the overconfidence situations owned up to their failures? Or maybe it'd be considered just as stupid an action, but not done by as stupid a person...?
- kordless 11y ago
  > trying to avoid paying for mistakes at the same time I observe that many people appear to be successful at avoiding their own suffering and offload it to someone else. It's far easier to blame someone else and judge them harshly, than accept our own hand in the matter. Looking confident is simply avoidance of work, or more bluntly, just being lazy.

jakejake 11y ago

The fear of looking stupid is probably what stops most people from ever doing anything interesting. I do see an occasional startup fumblebrag and think to myself "that was a stupid idea." But I rarely think anybody is stupid for trying.

tertius 11y ago
I think there's a difference between the fear you speak of and modesty. I can be modest and not have a fear of looking stupid. I just refrain from being stupid through modesty. When it matters I take risks and may be considered stupid, but as you say not stupid for trying.
mirimir 11y ago
> "If you don't want to do something stupid, you probably don't want to have higher expectations of your abilities than you should," Balazs said. "The worst thing someone can do is act confidently, and seriously, and still not act rationally. That's as stupid as it gets." That, in my opinion, is totally stupid ;) It's hard to assess ones abilities without risk of looking stupid. But of course, one must hedge the bet prudently.
- ak39 11y ago
  Indeed. If ALL we're interested in is what others /think/ of us, then by all means let's hedge our bets in that regard. If looking stupid however is a byproduct of a longer journey to achieving something, then who cares what others think about our intelligence or our paraded stupidity. But if looking stupid affects our chances of achieving what we set out to achieve, then we should be more circumspect before acting.

tertius 11y ago

Not an American, but living in the U.S. That quote is fairly eye opening. My culture is quite a bit more modest than the general American culture, to a degree that "confident" Americans are fairly annoying for not being modest. That's a very good way to put it, and yes, you're right, it's ingrained in this (HN/Tech) and the more general American culture.

napperjabber 11y ago
I don't know how to explain it. It's fucking annoying. While programming, I have to remain focused and mentally aware. While talking to anyone at work, I have to act like a ditzzy vally girl or hippy of some type. If I don't do this, I'm pegged as a threat. I've found that I can really only get shit done in a remote office, otherwise I'm circle jerking the whole staff. In short, some of us Americans hate it too.
- visakanv 11y ago
  > While talking to anyone at work, I have to act like a ditzzy vally girl or hippy of some type. If I don't do this, I'm pegged as a threat. That's hilarious. I'm just sitting here imagining a bunch of hippies and valley girls eyeing a tired, geeky programmer and going "Oh my god he is like such a threat to our organization??"
  - a3n 11y ago
    "He's harshing our facade."
saiya-jin 11y ago
to be honest, to most cultures out here/there general average American is by far the loudest person around, beyond any modesty. Usually not really appreciated, and the more traditional (ie didn't change that much in last 500 years) the culture is, the worse the effect. Personally I like it, a very different approach to self-presentation, that in some situations is more effective than usual shy polite careful... whatever,. But if you go backpacking in remote places somewhere in south asia for example, it can cause a bit of friction with locals sometimes.

jk4930 11y ago

If we take calculated risks where we know about the small probability of success (in the case of startups) and perhaps employ risk-mitigating measures and justify the whole enterprise with the problem to be solved or the possible payoff, we're still confident but not ignorant (and thus stupid). I don't experience that people call me somehow stupid for what I do. Perhaps because I tell them I know about the dangers, how I manage them, that my approach is not necessarily the best approach for other people (invalidating their choices).