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Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

62 points by xbeta 11y ago

dopamean 11y ago
Never thought I'd see an article about Arsenal here. The "secret" purchase has been talked about for quite some time now. We'll see if it pays off. In the mean time, while we wait, Manchester United has spent a king's ransom on a teenager and so far it's looking like a great bet (yes, I know it's early still). I'm a strong believer in analytics in basketball and baseball but I wonder if in some sports, like soccer, it is harder or perhaps not possible to quantify a player's effectiveness in a scientific way. I know my skepticism sounds just like what was mentioned in the article. Having said all of that, Arsene revolutionized scouting when he came to the PL by bringing on somewhat lesser known names from across Europe for prices that proved to be bargains. Some of those players turned into legends. Maybe with a little help he can reinvent scouting again.
- wtfmatey 11y ago
  Arsene revolutionised scouting by raiding bar's youth teams...
- kspaans 11y ago
  Related question from a non-sports person, about those 'bargain' prices. How long does it take for a player to become legendary, and when does their price catch up? Is the contract a bargain because it locks-in the unknown player at a below-market price even after they become legendary? Or is it a bargain because the contract lasts a season or two and establishes the player's skill, after which they have inertia on the team and can be signed at a new market-rate contract with less bidding-wars that would be the case if they were from another team?
  - kspaans 11y ago
    To expand on that a little with a software analogy, is it a bargain because they hired a talented intern who graduated into a full-time employee, or is it a bargain because they hired someone talented from a different country who has lower salary expectations?
    - xbeta 11y ago
      Well, very unlikely you will pay some 30+ aged footballers (except GK) much higher value regardless of which countries they were from. But for youngsters, they are full of potential, so a tool to help the club to scout is very helpful. In the past, they are relying heavily on "scouting agents", and that's bit of an art than science with data backed.
    - deleted 11y ago
      [deleted]
    - paublyrne 11y ago
      Less about wages, more about signing on/purchase fee. The analogy doesn't really work because in the non football world employees are not bought and sold in the same way. There is occasional talk about doing away with the system, as it goes against a lot of employee rights principles.
  - corin_ 11y ago
    In football (soccer), more so than in sports like baseball in America, players' costs are often more in the price tag when getting the player than their wages. A very good player might make £10m/yr in wages, and cost £50m to buy from a different team. Unknown players will be cheaper on both, but even if you picked them up on a one year contract and they immediately proved that their next contract should be highly paid, you've still saved a potentially huge amount on buying them before they were worth a huge signing fee. Gradually salary will catch up based on how well they play and based on the market, and the team that found this cheap player can either stop considering him a cheap player (but still be glad he came in cheaply), or can sell him on for a profit. The top 10 salaries in the premier league range from ~£10m/year to ~£15m/year, so consider that buying a top player and keeping them for 2 years can often cost £20m-£80m. If you can buy a player for cheap and pay him not a huge amount, you can afford to spend a few years turning him into a star player and still come out way ahead even if in those few years he wasn't giving you value other than turning into a better player. How long does it take for a player to become legendary? "Legendary" would normally be reserved either for the very best of the best, or on a team level based on both quality but also loyalty - as such you'd rarely see someone be called a legend before spending quite a few years at a club. But a player can go from relatively unknown to "shit he's really good" in as little as a season potentially - maybe he was playing in a league that doesn't get as much attention from countries with the bigger leagues, maybe he needed better team-mates around him to bring out his best, maybe a manager or coach helped him change his playing style very quickly, etc.
  - smcl 11y ago
    Semi-unknown players from mid-tier clubs simply cost far less in transfer fees than established high-profile players. A classic Arsene Wenger signing was Freddie Ljungberg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fredrik_Ljungberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fredrik_Ljungberg). He was signed from a team called Halmstads in the Swedish league. While Halmstads were doing pretty well in the Swedish league at this time, they were unknowns on the world scene. Since Arsenal had little competition in signing him and since Ljungberg was pretty unknown they were able to pay £3m - which is not a large sum at that level level. For some context, at the time the most expensive signing in the world was Denilson who Real Betis bought for £20m. However Ljungberg went on to play 216 games for Arsenal, scoring 72 goals which is a considerable number. For comparison Denilson - who was played in roughly the same position - played 186 games for Betis and scored 13 goals. Ljungberg is generally considered to be an Arsenal legend, while Denilson is thought of as an embarrassing waste of money and gets barely a footnote on the Real Betis wikipedia page. As for what is considered a "legend" I really don't know, football is weird like that. It could be that you achieve this status by being an aggressive no-bullshit kinda guy (Vinnie Jones at Wimbledon), a world class player who stays at the same club his entire life (Ryan Giggs @ Man Utd) or just being an insanely prolific striker who scores for fun . On this topic though, various newspapers\magazines\sites periodically publish "worst transfers" lists which are basically filler (everyone who cares already knows who will be on the lists), but which could be surprisingly enlightening for someone who's not familiar with football's transfer scene. This one's a bit advert-y but you'll get the gist: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1610214-13-stupidest-transfers-in-world-football-history http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1610214-13-stupidest-tran...
    - dopamean 11y ago
      Very well put. This is exactly what I was talking to.
  - paublyrne 11y ago
    In football at the moment, there are two elements to price - wages and purchase price. Clubs 'sell' players who are already contracted to them, to other clubs, in order to have the contract nullified. The price can be tens of millions of euro. The buying club will tie down the new player to a long contract as part of the purchase, perhaps 4 or 5 years. Wages are low for young players, but will be increased rapidly if the player emerges as a real talent that other clubs would want, which gives the club the chance to extend the contract through renegotiation. A longer contract for a highly rated young player would mean higher wages also as part of the bargain, although contracts can be renegotiated and extended with higher wages at any time, if the club views the player as an asset that they wish to keep. When they extend that contract it generally means that another club who tries to buy will have to pay more, and usually wages are at least matched and often increased by the buying club. Sorry that's not a succinct answer.
  - patrickk 11y ago
    It's incredibly random in football when it comes to assigning value to players, at least in Europe. Take the example of James Rodríguez[1], a young Colombian player. His "value" suddenly skyrocketed[2] when he scored this wonder goal[3] in the 2014 World cup. Next thing, Real Madrid snapped him up for €80million, the decision at least partially influenced by Real's "Galaticos"[4] transfer policy, and the fact that Real can increase their commercial influence in a Spanish speaking country because Rodríguez is Colombian. Other factors that influence a players value: - time left on contract (longer time means more money) - "marketability" e.g. player's ability to sell lots of club merchandise, and improve the club's brand - perceived desperation of the buying/selling club (do they have a desperate need for a top class striker to make up for a lack of goals?) - if there is a bidding war between clubs (e.g. young French striker Antony Martial was subject to a bidding war between Manchester United and Chelsea, dramatically driving up his value.) - perceived transfer war chest of the buying club - player's age - if the player came off the back of a successful international tournament, which dramatically (sometimes artificially) showcases their skill. Sometimes teams will buy a player ahead of the tournament to prevent a later bidding war. - skill of the player's agent (e.g. Raheem Sterling to Man City) - then players skill and so on... Every deal is a virtual once-off, it's always a bargain in hindsight[5] (whether you pay little or big money or not) and the player exceeds whatever the initial expectations were. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rodr%C3%ADguez https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rodr%C3%ADguez [2] http://www.transfermarkt.com/james-rodriguez/profil/spieler/88103 http://www.transfermarkt.com/james-rodriguez/profil/spieler/... [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GESyL3MkgNU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GESyL3MkgNU [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gal%C3%A1cticos https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gal%C3%A1cticos [5] http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/anthony-martial-the-football-world-reacts-to-bargain-of-the-summer-manchester-united-signing-as-he-10510158.html http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/a...
    - robmcm 11y ago
      - Injury risk - Country of origin (home grown player quotas, visas, participation in national team (especially African cup of nations that occurs mid season). - Attractiveness (something Madrid apparently value as part of their brand, and marketability) - Mentality (Mario...) - Position (typically higher the further up the pitch they play) - Previous contract value. A number of players signed by big clubs then released are on high wages, and expect they to be met. - time left on contract (shorter time means higher wage demands)
- EwanToo 11y ago
  I'm not sure Martial is as risky a bet as people make out, it's not like United don't have a similar analytics team in place (every premier league team does), doing the same kind of analysis. Arsene certainly revolutionised scouting, but I think now it's a lot more well understood by other managers.
  - lmorris84 11y ago
    The problem with applying analytics to Martial is the limited dataset - he only made about 50 appearances in his career before joining United. It's looking a good bet so far, but it's definitely a punt.
    - patrickk 11y ago
      With young players, you take quantitative factors more into account than an older player. Staff and players at Manchester United have mentioned in interviews how Martial is extremely mature for a 19 year old, he is married with a child and obviously wants to provide for his family. The fact that he is French with limited English, means the tabloid horseshit rolls off his back and doesn't detract from his game.
- robmcm 11y ago
  I think it's fair to say Arsene's ability to buy bargain players has died up. Gone are the days of Henry/Viera/Van Percy coming in as mediocre players only to be indispensable a season later. I think if you look at some of the more recent meteoric rises, they all seems to come from lesser leagues or clubs, BVB/Juventus/Atlético Madrid/Porto, and to some extent Liverpool/Spurs (Bale/Suarez/Sterling/Coutinho/Kane). I think signing a player with potential is only part of the issue, the key is playing, developing and nurturing them. With teams like BVB/Juventus/Atlético Madrid/Porto they are either in easier leagues where a player doesn't have to be the finished article to excel, or financially constrained to not be able to purchase the finished article. With Spurs and Liverpool they fall into the later category so are forced to give youth players a chance. Take Kevin De Bruyne as an example, an obvious talent purchased by Chelsea, but not played because he wasn't quite finished (perhaps only in reputation rather than ability). Sold to play in a lesser league where he excelled, and then purchased for 50 million where his stature and starting place are then almost granted. These days I think Arsene is stuck in a position where he has the money to spend, but ideally want's to return to his roots of nurturing young players. However the fans and board aren't willing to gamble on youth, in favor of signing 40/50 million finished articles. A few million on an analytic company isn't going to break the bank, and may be more valuable in opposition analysis than finding the next rough diamond.
  - TuxMulder 11y ago
    I think the analytical approach is still working for Arsenal; Monreal, Koscielny, Coquelin, Bellerin, Carzola, Giroud - non of those guys were marquee signings who cost loads, but all are now indispensable and could arguably walk into most teams in Europe. The analytical approach is clearly working for other teams too. The game is slowly changing and people are finally seeing the worth in the stats.
    - robmcm 11y ago
      I would argue they are typical squad players for a team of Arsenal's level. I would be very surprised to see any of them get poached from another champions league club, or have a statue erected outside the Emirates. Analytic no doubt played a part in their signing, but it's hard to argue that they are exceptional examples of recruitment in the way Lewandowski or Kagawa were to Dortmund.
xbeta 11y ago
As sports are now much more data driven, is there any other analytics are doing similar? In this case of Arsenal, they purchased it for "scouting" purpose. I would also love to see if some sport clubs can leverage the data and make sport management as a predictable science.
- petepete 11y ago
  Opta certainly hope so. They have, and licence access to, a colossal amount of sports data and I imagine clubs that don't have the resources to generate/collect their own will probably use a service like theirs. http://www.optasports.com/ http://www.optasports.com/ http://www.optasportspro.com/about/optapro-blog/posts/2015/blog-inside-leicester-city/ http://www.optasportspro.com/about/optapro-blog/posts/2015/b...
- jmngomes 11y ago
  One of the ways Videobserver [1] addresses this is by providing tools to speed up video analysis and to gather data for statistical analysis. [1] https://www.videobserver.com/ https://www.videobserver.com/
skc 11y ago
As an Arsenal fan, this somewhat surprises me considering Arsene Wenger seems to be a fairly old fashioned sort of coach these days. It seems an eternity ago that he swept into the league with fresh new ideas. Nowadays many people (wrongly) consider him a stubborn old man who has been passed by by the modern game. Guess he still has a few tricks left though.
- xbeta 11y ago
  I disagree (and I am too an Arsenal fan). Wenger always brought in these new blood who are mostly below the age of 23, and I guess that's the trick he used to scout them. I also think he is not the type of guy brag about his tricks. But this is just for scouting. I'm yet to see someone can get all the data on each games, and help in coming up with tactics and strategy for planning the next match. Perhaps employ some ML too!
  - jumpwah 11y ago
    What? Couching is not all scouting... no one's denying that Wenger is always on the look out for young prospects. But Wenger is a sort of 'old fashioned' coach. He prefers focusing on how his players can do better, rather than trying to focus on the weaknesses of the opponent, which is definitely not 'modern'. This has been slowly changing the past few seasons however. That being said, I'm definitely no #WOB just in case you think that.
    - xbeta 11y ago
      It's sorta weird to chat about Arsenal here... I do agree with your above points, but he has his football (sorry American) philosophy which not most fans understand. The past decade, he cut his spending to just build a new stadium for Arsenal, budget is tight, so what to do? Bring in the new blood, and the hard data + analytics help! I'm hoping to see he can also bring in some data-driven approach on his on-field tactics and off-field strategy.
      - wizzzzzy 11y ago
varun640 11y ago
Arsenal news on this page. Wow. "StatDNA’s database is now Arsenal’s database, so if Wenger wants to sign a defender, who is, say, 6ft 4in, an excellent reader of the game and an accurate passer, one push of a button will bring up the best options in world football." Interesting and Arsenal need a few.
- rmvt 11y ago
  i found that quote a bit funny. i was hoping that something like this system would be far more useful than that. i mean, football manager (the game) has been used for that purpose for ages now. also, i don't believe that a system like this one is new. i can't find the source, but sometime ago i read SAP's owner (founder?) had a system much like this one built for the german national team.
  - robmcm 11y ago
    Teams have been using game databases for years as a scouting tool: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/everton-signs-football-manager-database http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/everton-signs-football-man...
- fernandotakai 11y ago
  > Interesting and Arsenal need a few. between per, kos, gabriel and chambers, arsenal has a good number of defenders. the three main guys (per, kos and gabriel) are interchangeable and play quite well with each other. now, arsenal 100% needs a defensive midfielder. only coquelin is not enough (arteta and flamini are not good enough).
- arjie 11y ago
  I wouldn't say that. Our defenders are pretty damned good. Between Per, Kos, Gabriel, Bellerin, and Monreal, I think we're in a pretty good position there.
niels 11y ago
The owner of SmartOdds betting company, Matthew Benham is applying his company's statistical insights to the clubs he owns. This has proven quite successful. Great to see Arsenal doing the same. http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jul/27/how-fc-midtjylland-analytical-route-champions-league-brentford-matthew-benham http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jul/27/how-fc-midtj...
- notahacker 11y ago
  It has to be said, the article gives remarkably little insight into what Benham's statistical system actually offers (and of course what was so objectionable about it to the successful manager who chose to part company with the club over it). I mean, any football club in the world has access to data on "any two-footed left-back in the world of a certain standard, aged 22-26, who has not been injured for the previous 18 months"; we had games that could do this pretty reliably in the 1990s. Football seems like a particularly difficult sport to try the Moneyball approach with because it's largely a battle of team cohesion rather than individual skills, and even apparently novel and meaningful heuristics one might devise like "percentage of forward passes completed in opposition half over the course of a season" are likely to be heavily influenced by the tactical approach of the player's team. Even if your telemetry data is incredibly comprehensive, it's going to be difficult to teach a computer the difference between chances created because the timing of the pass was exquisite and chances succeeded because the covering defenders were out of position or made a glaring hash of the interception; not something you'll ever find coaches or commentators struggling to decide on.
thom 11y ago
There's still lots of great football stats work being done out in the open, at http://statsbomb.com/ http://statsbomb.com/ for example. One of the founders of StatsBomb, Ted Knutson, went on to be hired by Matthew Benham to do player analytics for his two clubs. There hasn't yet been the sudden land grab that there was in ice hockey where all the best analytics bloggers got hired and silenced pretty much overnight, but clubs are getting far better at this stuff. Between Opta's human-based on-the-ball event tracking, and TRACAB's computer vision player tracking solutions that they provide to the Premier League, there's a bunch of interesting computer science and business going on around this stuff.
dmolony 11y ago
This article was published over a year ago.
morganK 11y ago
Any idea why this come up one year after being published?
simula67 11y ago
This is old news. But Wengers still relies a lot on the 'eye' http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jan/30/arsene-wenger-gabriel-paulista-signing http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jan/30/arsene-wenge...
ChrisArchitect 11y ago
put a date after this title! (2014)
- xbeta 11y ago
  totally my bad! I forgot to check the date. I just happen to stumble upon this article yesterday!
lazyant 11y ago
This is an example of a good movement by an attacking player (Munir, player from Barcelona starting at the top) that helps create the goal and still won't be traditionally credited as anything (didn't score or assist or even touched the ball in this play): http://gfycat.com/TotalEmbellishedDesertpupfish http://gfycat.com/TotalEmbellishedDesertpupfish At some level soccer is about creating space for yourself or for your teammates, this is what this player does (following Suarez' clue) and hopefully the new data companies are capturing this (versus silly stats like possession).

62 points by xbeta 11y ago

Never thought I'd see an article about Arsenal here. The "secret" purchase has been talked about for quite some time now. We'll see if it pays off. In the mean time, while we wait, Manchester United has spent a king's ransom on a teenager and so far it's looking like a great bet (yes, I know it's early still). I'm a strong believer in analytics in basketball and baseball but I wonder if in some sports, like soccer, it is harder or perhaps not possible to quantify a player's effectiveness in a scientific way. I know my skepticism sounds just like what was mentioned in the article. Having said all of that, Arsene revolutionized scouting when he came to the PL by bringing on somewhat lesser known names from across Europe for prices that proved to be bargains. Some of those players turned into legends. Maybe with a little help he can reinvent scouting again.

wtfmatey 11y ago
Arsene revolutionised scouting by raiding bar's youth teams...
kspaans 11y ago
Related question from a non-sports person, about those 'bargain' prices. How long does it take for a player to become legendary, and when does their price catch up? Is the contract a bargain because it locks-in the unknown player at a below-market price even after they become legendary? Or is it a bargain because the contract lasts a season or two and establishes the player's skill, after which they have inertia on the team and can be signed at a new market-rate contract with less bidding-wars that would be the case if they were from another team?
- kspaans 11y ago
  To expand on that a little with a software analogy, is it a bargain because they hired a talented intern who graduated into a full-time employee, or is it a bargain because they hired someone talented from a different country who has lower salary expectations?
  - xbeta 11y ago
    Well, very unlikely you will pay some 30+ aged footballers (except GK) much higher value regardless of which countries they were from. But for youngsters, they are full of potential, so a tool to help the club to scout is very helpful. In the past, they are relying heavily on "scouting agents", and that's bit of an art than science with data backed.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
  - paublyrne 11y ago
    Less about wages, more about signing on/purchase fee. The analogy doesn't really work because in the non football world employees are not bought and sold in the same way. There is occasional talk about doing away with the system, as it goes against a lot of employee rights principles.
- corin_ 11y ago
  In football (soccer), more so than in sports like baseball in America, players' costs are often more in the price tag when getting the player than their wages. A very good player might make £10m/yr in wages, and cost £50m to buy from a different team. Unknown players will be cheaper on both, but even if you picked them up on a one year contract and they immediately proved that their next contract should be highly paid, you've still saved a potentially huge amount on buying them before they were worth a huge signing fee. Gradually salary will catch up based on how well they play and based on the market, and the team that found this cheap player can either stop considering him a cheap player (but still be glad he came in cheaply), or can sell him on for a profit. The top 10 salaries in the premier league range from ~£10m/year to ~£15m/year, so consider that buying a top player and keeping them for 2 years can often cost £20m-£80m. If you can buy a player for cheap and pay him not a huge amount, you can afford to spend a few years turning him into a star player and still come out way ahead even if in those few years he wasn't giving you value other than turning into a better player. How long does it take for a player to become legendary? "Legendary" would normally be reserved either for the very best of the best, or on a team level based on both quality but also loyalty - as such you'd rarely see someone be called a legend before spending quite a few years at a club. But a player can go from relatively unknown to "shit he's really good" in as little as a season potentially - maybe he was playing in a league that doesn't get as much attention from countries with the bigger leagues, maybe he needed better team-mates around him to bring out his best, maybe a manager or coach helped him change his playing style very quickly, etc.
- smcl 11y ago
  Semi-unknown players from mid-tier clubs simply cost far less in transfer fees than established high-profile players. A classic Arsene Wenger signing was Freddie Ljungberg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fredrik_Ljungberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fredrik_Ljungberg). He was signed from a team called Halmstads in the Swedish league. While Halmstads were doing pretty well in the Swedish league at this time, they were unknowns on the world scene. Since Arsenal had little competition in signing him and since Ljungberg was pretty unknown they were able to pay £3m - which is not a large sum at that level level. For some context, at the time the most expensive signing in the world was Denilson who Real Betis bought for £20m. However Ljungberg went on to play 216 games for Arsenal, scoring 72 goals which is a considerable number. For comparison Denilson - who was played in roughly the same position - played 186 games for Betis and scored 13 goals. Ljungberg is generally considered to be an Arsenal legend, while Denilson is thought of as an embarrassing waste of money and gets barely a footnote on the Real Betis wikipedia page. As for what is considered a "legend" I really don't know, football is weird like that. It could be that you achieve this status by being an aggressive no-bullshit kinda guy (Vinnie Jones at Wimbledon), a world class player who stays at the same club his entire life (Ryan Giggs @ Man Utd) or just being an insanely prolific striker who scores for fun . On this topic though, various newspapers\magazines\sites periodically publish "worst transfers" lists which are basically filler (everyone who cares already knows who will be on the lists), but which could be surprisingly enlightening for someone who's not familiar with football's transfer scene. This one's a bit advert-y but you'll get the gist: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1610214-13-stupidest-transfers-in-world-football-history http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1610214-13-stupidest-tran...
  - dopamean 11y ago
    Very well put. This is exactly what I was talking to.
- paublyrne 11y ago
  In football at the moment, there are two elements to price - wages and purchase price. Clubs 'sell' players who are already contracted to them, to other clubs, in order to have the contract nullified. The price can be tens of millions of euro. The buying club will tie down the new player to a long contract as part of the purchase, perhaps 4 or 5 years. Wages are low for young players, but will be increased rapidly if the player emerges as a real talent that other clubs would want, which gives the club the chance to extend the contract through renegotiation. A longer contract for a highly rated young player would mean higher wages also as part of the bargain, although contracts can be renegotiated and extended with higher wages at any time, if the club views the player as an asset that they wish to keep. When they extend that contract it generally means that another club who tries to buy will have to pay more, and usually wages are at least matched and often increased by the buying club. Sorry that's not a succinct answer.
- patrickk 11y ago
  It's incredibly random in football when it comes to assigning value to players, at least in Europe. Take the example of James Rodríguez[1], a young Colombian player. His "value" suddenly skyrocketed[2] when he scored this wonder goal[3] in the 2014 World cup. Next thing, Real Madrid snapped him up for €80million, the decision at least partially influenced by Real's "Galaticos"[4] transfer policy, and the fact that Real can increase their commercial influence in a Spanish speaking country because Rodríguez is Colombian. Other factors that influence a players value: - time left on contract (longer time means more money) - "marketability" e.g. player's ability to sell lots of club merchandise, and improve the club's brand - perceived desperation of the buying/selling club (do they have a desperate need for a top class striker to make up for a lack of goals?) - if there is a bidding war between clubs (e.g. young French striker Antony Martial was subject to a bidding war between Manchester United and Chelsea, dramatically driving up his value.) - perceived transfer war chest of the buying club - player's age - if the player came off the back of a successful international tournament, which dramatically (sometimes artificially) showcases their skill. Sometimes teams will buy a player ahead of the tournament to prevent a later bidding war. - skill of the player's agent (e.g. Raheem Sterling to Man City) - then players skill and so on... Every deal is a virtual once-off, it's always a bargain in hindsight[5] (whether you pay little or big money or not) and the player exceeds whatever the initial expectations were. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rodr%C3%ADguez https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rodr%C3%ADguez [2] http://www.transfermarkt.com/james-rodriguez/profil/spieler/88103 http://www.transfermarkt.com/james-rodriguez/profil/spieler/... [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GESyL3MkgNU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GESyL3MkgNU [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gal%C3%A1cticos https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gal%C3%A1cticos [5] http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/anthony-martial-the-football-world-reacts-to-bargain-of-the-summer-manchester-united-signing-as-he-10510158.html http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/a...
  - robmcm 11y ago
    - Injury risk - Country of origin (home grown player quotas, visas, participation in national team (especially African cup of nations that occurs mid season). - Attractiveness (something Madrid apparently value as part of their brand, and marketability) - Mentality (Mario...) - Position (typically higher the further up the pitch they play) - Previous contract value. A number of players signed by big clubs then released are on high wages, and expect they to be met. - time left on contract (shorter time means higher wage demands)
EwanToo 11y ago
I'm not sure Martial is as risky a bet as people make out, it's not like United don't have a similar analytics team in place (every premier league team does), doing the same kind of analysis. Arsene certainly revolutionised scouting, but I think now it's a lot more well understood by other managers.
- lmorris84 11y ago
  The problem with applying analytics to Martial is the limited dataset - he only made about 50 appearances in his career before joining United. It's looking a good bet so far, but it's definitely a punt.
  - patrickk 11y ago
    With young players, you take quantitative factors more into account than an older player. Staff and players at Manchester United have mentioned in interviews how Martial is extremely mature for a 19 year old, he is married with a child and obviously wants to provide for his family. The fact that he is French with limited English, means the tabloid horseshit rolls off his back and doesn't detract from his game.
robmcm 11y ago
I think it's fair to say Arsene's ability to buy bargain players has died up. Gone are the days of Henry/Viera/Van Percy coming in as mediocre players only to be indispensable a season later. I think if you look at some of the more recent meteoric rises, they all seems to come from lesser leagues or clubs, BVB/Juventus/Atlético Madrid/Porto, and to some extent Liverpool/Spurs (Bale/Suarez/Sterling/Coutinho/Kane). I think signing a player with potential is only part of the issue, the key is playing, developing and nurturing them. With teams like BVB/Juventus/Atlético Madrid/Porto they are either in easier leagues where a player doesn't have to be the finished article to excel, or financially constrained to not be able to purchase the finished article. With Spurs and Liverpool they fall into the later category so are forced to give youth players a chance. Take Kevin De Bruyne as an example, an obvious talent purchased by Chelsea, but not played because he wasn't quite finished (perhaps only in reputation rather than ability). Sold to play in a lesser league where he excelled, and then purchased for 50 million where his stature and starting place are then almost granted. These days I think Arsene is stuck in a position where he has the money to spend, but ideally want's to return to his roots of nurturing young players. However the fans and board aren't willing to gamble on youth, in favor of signing 40/50 million finished articles. A few million on an analytic company isn't going to break the bank, and may be more valuable in opposition analysis than finding the next rough diamond.
- TuxMulder 11y ago
  I think the analytical approach is still working for Arsenal; Monreal, Koscielny, Coquelin, Bellerin, Carzola, Giroud - non of those guys were marquee signings who cost loads, but all are now indispensable and could arguably walk into most teams in Europe. The analytical approach is clearly working for other teams too. The game is slowly changing and people are finally seeing the worth in the stats.
  - robmcm 11y ago
    I would argue they are typical squad players for a team of Arsenal's level. I would be very surprised to see any of them get poached from another champions league club, or have a statue erected outside the Emirates. Analytic no doubt played a part in their signing, but it's hard to argue that they are exceptional examples of recruitment in the way Lewandowski or Kagawa were to Dortmund.

xbeta 11y ago

As sports are now much more data driven, is there any other analytics are doing similar? In this case of Arsenal, they purchased it for "scouting" purpose. I would also love to see if some sport clubs can leverage the data and make sport management as a predictable science.

petepete 11y ago
Opta certainly hope so. They have, and licence access to, a colossal amount of sports data and I imagine clubs that don't have the resources to generate/collect their own will probably use a service like theirs. http://www.optasports.com/ http://www.optasports.com/ http://www.optasportspro.com/about/optapro-blog/posts/2015/blog-inside-leicester-city/ http://www.optasportspro.com/about/optapro-blog/posts/2015/b...
jmngomes 11y ago
One of the ways Videobserver [1] addresses this is by providing tools to speed up video analysis and to gather data for statistical analysis. [1] https://www.videobserver.com/ https://www.videobserver.com/

skc 11y ago

As an Arsenal fan, this somewhat surprises me considering Arsene Wenger seems to be a fairly old fashioned sort of coach these days. It seems an eternity ago that he swept into the league with fresh new ideas. Nowadays many people (wrongly) consider him a stubborn old man who has been passed by by the modern game. Guess he still has a few tricks left though.

xbeta 11y ago
I disagree (and I am too an Arsenal fan). Wenger always brought in these new blood who are mostly below the age of 23, and I guess that's the trick he used to scout them. I also think he is not the type of guy brag about his tricks. But this is just for scouting. I'm yet to see someone can get all the data on each games, and help in coming up with tactics and strategy for planning the next match. Perhaps employ some ML too!
- jumpwah 11y ago
  What? Couching is not all scouting... no one's denying that Wenger is always on the look out for young prospects. But Wenger is a sort of 'old fashioned' coach. He prefers focusing on how his players can do better, rather than trying to focus on the weaknesses of the opponent, which is definitely not 'modern'. This has been slowly changing the past few seasons however. That being said, I'm definitely no #WOB just in case you think that.
  - xbeta 11y ago
    It's sorta weird to chat about Arsenal here... I do agree with your above points, but he has his football (sorry American) philosophy which not most fans understand. The past decade, he cut his spending to just build a new stadium for Arsenal, budget is tight, so what to do? Bring in the new blood, and the hard data + analytics help! I'm hoping to see he can also bring in some data-driven approach on his on-field tactics and off-field strategy.
    - wizzzzzy 11y ago

varun640 11y ago

Arsenal news on this page. Wow. "StatDNA’s database is now Arsenal’s database, so if Wenger wants to sign a defender, who is, say, 6ft 4in, an excellent reader of the game and an accurate passer, one push of a button will bring up the best options in world football." Interesting and Arsenal need a few.

rmvt 11y ago
i found that quote a bit funny. i was hoping that something like this system would be far more useful than that. i mean, football manager (the game) has been used for that purpose for ages now. also, i don't believe that a system like this one is new. i can't find the source, but sometime ago i read SAP's owner (founder?) had a system much like this one built for the german national team.
- robmcm 11y ago
  Teams have been using game databases for years as a scouting tool: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/everton-signs-football-manager-database http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/everton-signs-football-man...
fernandotakai 11y ago
> Interesting and Arsenal need a few. between per, kos, gabriel and chambers, arsenal has a good number of defenders. the three main guys (per, kos and gabriel) are interchangeable and play quite well with each other. now, arsenal 100% needs a defensive midfielder. only coquelin is not enough (arteta and flamini are not good enough).
arjie 11y ago
I wouldn't say that. Our defenders are pretty damned good. Between Per, Kos, Gabriel, Bellerin, and Monreal, I think we're in a pretty good position there.

niels 11y ago

The owner of SmartOdds betting company, Matthew Benham is applying his company's statistical insights to the clubs he owns. This has proven quite successful. Great to see Arsenal doing the same. http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jul/27/how-fc-midtjylland-analytical-route-champions-league-brentford-matthew-benham http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jul/27/how-fc-midtj...

notahacker 11y ago
It has to be said, the article gives remarkably little insight into what Benham's statistical system actually offers (and of course what was so objectionable about it to the successful manager who chose to part company with the club over it). I mean, any football club in the world has access to data on "any two-footed left-back in the world of a certain standard, aged 22-26, who has not been injured for the previous 18 months"; we had games that could do this pretty reliably in the 1990s. Football seems like a particularly difficult sport to try the Moneyball approach with because it's largely a battle of team cohesion rather than individual skills, and even apparently novel and meaningful heuristics one might devise like "percentage of forward passes completed in opposition half over the course of a season" are likely to be heavily influenced by the tactical approach of the player's team. Even if your telemetry data is incredibly comprehensive, it's going to be difficult to teach a computer the difference between chances created because the timing of the pass was exquisite and chances succeeded because the covering defenders were out of position or made a glaring hash of the interception; not something you'll ever find coaches or commentators struggling to decide on.

thom 11y ago

There's still lots of great football stats work being done out in the open, at http://statsbomb.com/ http://statsbomb.com/ for example. One of the founders of StatsBomb, Ted Knutson, went on to be hired by Matthew Benham to do player analytics for his two clubs. There hasn't yet been the sudden land grab that there was in ice hockey where all the best analytics bloggers got hired and silenced pretty much overnight, but clubs are getting far better at this stuff. Between Opta's human-based on-the-ball event tracking, and TRACAB's computer vision player tracking solutions that they provide to the Premier League, there's a bunch of interesting computer science and business going on around this stuff.

dmolony 11y ago

This article was published over a year ago.

morganK 11y ago

Any idea why this come up one year after being published?

simula67 11y ago

This is old news. But Wengers still relies a lot on the 'eye' http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jan/30/arsene-wenger-gabriel-paulista-signing http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jan/30/arsene-wenge...

ChrisArchitect 11y ago

put a date after this title! (2014)

xbeta 11y ago
totally my bad! I forgot to check the date. I just happen to stumble upon this article yesterday!

lazyant 11y ago

This is an example of a good movement by an attacking player (Munir, player from Barcelona starting at the top) that helps create the goal and still won't be traditionally credited as anything (didn't score or assist or even touched the ball in this play): http://gfycat.com/TotalEmbellishedDesertpupfish http://gfycat.com/TotalEmbellishedDesertpupfish At some level soccer is about creating space for yourself or for your teammates, this is what this player does (following Suarez' clue) and hopefully the new data companies are capturing this (versus silly stats like possession).