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This article is so full of errors and inaccurate guesses, it is not even funny. In reality, mobile users search at least as often as desktop users. Error #1: d

by mrb 11y ago

This article is so full of errors and inaccurate guesses, it is not even funny. In reality, mobile users search at least as often as desktop users. Error #1: despite Google explicitly stating half the searches are mobile and "this excludes tablets" [1], the author accidentally included Android tablet users in his calculations (he used the "1.4 billion" Android users figure). At least 200 million of these 1.4 billion are Android tablets, so the number of Android phones is 1.2 billion. This sets the mobile searches per device per day at 1.04. Error #2: the author's gross rounding of the number of PCs in use is incorrect. It was already estimated at 1.5 billion in 2013, and said to grow to about 2.3 billion by 2015 [2]. Just plugging this number into the author's math, and this sets the desktop searches per device per day at 0.87. So fixing these two errors alone and you end up with the conclusion that mobile users search a lot more than desktop users (1.04 vs. 0.87). [1] http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/10/08/google-says-mobile-searches-surpass-those-on-pcs/ http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/10/08/google-says-mobile-se... [2] https://www.gartner.com/doc/1602818/forecast-pc-installed-base-worldwide https://www.gartner.com/doc/1602818/forecast-pc-installed-ba... (That's the most current estimate I could find —honestly 2.3 billion is likely an overestimate because they didn't forecast the tablet growth, but if it is anywhere above 1.85 billion my point and math stands).

charlesarthur 11y ago
Thanks for your comments. #1 Android tablets are an interesting one. Do we think people are more active in terms of Google searches on Android tablets than on Android phones or desktop? I'd suggest they're less active (in searching terms) than on desktop. Than mobile - well, the received wisdom is that Android tablets are largely used for consuming video, particularly in Asia, which is where a lot of them are. It's an oversight on my part, I agree, but I'm not sure they make a big difference. #2 Gartner revised its calculation for the PC base earlier this year - if you followed my linkblog you'd have seen the reference to its latest calculation [1] which puts the number at 1.48bn in 2015, falling constantly towards 1.38bn in 2019. That might get revised, of course, but the 2015 figure is probably accurate.
- charlesarthur 11y ago
  Ooops, left out the link to Gartner. It's this: http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/windows-10-does-not-change-the-pcs-fate/ http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/windows-10-does-no...

by mrb 11y ago

charlesarthur 11y ago

Thanks for your comments. #1 Android tablets are an interesting one. Do we think people are more active in terms of Google searches on Android tablets than on Android phones or desktop? I'd suggest they're less active (in searching terms) than on desktop. Than mobile - well, the received wisdom is that Android tablets are largely used for consuming video, particularly in Asia, which is where a lot of them are. It's an oversight on my part, I agree, but I'm not sure they make a big difference. #2 Gartner revised its calculation for the PC base earlier this year - if you followed my linkblog you'd have seen the reference to its latest calculation [1] which puts the number at 1.48bn in 2015, falling constantly towards 1.38bn in 2019. That might get revised, of course, but the 2015 figure is probably accurate.

charlesarthur 11y ago
Ooops, left out the link to Gartner. It's this: http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/windows-10-does-not-change-the-pcs-fate/ http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/windows-10-does-no...