So the only real reason to not get a flu shot would be if you think the decreased risk of getting the seasonal flu is outweighed by the increased risk of a) a p

So the only real reason to not get a flu shot would be if you think the decreased risk of getting the seasonal flu is outweighed by the increased risk of a) a pandemic happening and b) a potential* increased risk of getting a pandemic flu, weighted by impact of each disease. As always, the impact of even the seasonal flu on children and the elderly can be very high, so I can't imagine that trade-off being worth it for that population. * Increased risk was shown for H1N1, but no guarantee it would be shown for a future pandemic.