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• jessaustin 11y ago
  TFA is like most popular-media accounts of the "intelligence community": adulatory pablum divorced from widely-known facts, because secrets. If it's repeated often enough then simpletons with short memories will believe it. I'm not tabula rasa; I've actually been paying attention for nearly half my life. The world is simply not as dangerous as they've long struggled to convince us. Much of the danger that is real, was created by them. No thinking person can claim that the horrible things we've done over the last 14 years have made the world a better place. All that shit was supported by "intelligence". It's even more obnoxious that this tiny study of non-public data is described as "even more striking because of its contrast with a famous earlier finding", which earlier finding was a vastly longer, more rigorous, and more scholarly study of more reliable, public data. That is, Tetlock's was a study one might call scientific. In TFA however it gets second billing to this spurious unrepeatable nonsense, because "professional analysts are more cautious than your average pundit". Sure, pull the other one.