5 ms·

I'd imagine the horses were telling themselves the same thing back when the automobile hit the scene... Robots have already replaced human jobs. They started

by zzalpha 11y ago

I'd imagine the horses were telling themselves the same thing back when the automobile hit the scene... Robots have already replaced human jobs. They started with factory labour, but today they're trading our stocks, diagnosing diseases, driving our cars... it'll be a very long time before automation can completely replace the human animal (today, our ability to improvise in a highly unpredictable world gives us a strong edge, which is why those self-driving cars won't be seen on wintry roads any time soon), but I have no doubt that humans will get automated out of work in the fullness of time.

mey 11y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
icanhackit 11y ago
> I have no doubt that humans will get automated out of work in the fullness of time. The trend I see emerging in offices is emotional and social commitment becoming the primary form of labor. This may be one of the forms of work that persists in a highly automated society.
- ArkyBeagle 11y ago
  I can't help but think that for one, that has to be ephemeral, and two, it can't last. Those at least sound expensive, and at some point, firms which don't need it will rise. I personally think the chattering classes bent that "Emotional Quotient" thing into common usage after the Bell Curve and this article is just more of that. Don't get me wrong; the EQ stuff is important but it's not likely to be what some writers think it is.
  - icanhackit 11y ago
    > Those at least sound expensive, and at some point, firms which don't need it will rise. Perhaps, but if we look at things like organically produced goods, fair-trade etc it shows that in post-scarcity societies emotion and ecology play a large part in purchasing decisions. Even ethical investing aka socially responsible investing is a big thing. With that in mind, does the cheaper, wholly automated firm beat out the warm-fuzzy partially-human-crafted yet more expensive equivalent? I think it will depend on scarcity.
    - Retric 11y ago
      People with massive disposable incomes care for intangibles, but most people are more than happy shopping at Walmart. The important thing to remember is signaling shapes behavior, but culture is always in flux. Young men in the 60's suddenly decided it was ok to have long hair, and suddenly lot's of barber shops went out of business. A short fad in 2070 decides that vat grown meat is better for the environment, and boom so much for the organic cattle farmers.
      - icanhackit 11y ago
        People with massive disposable incomes care for intangibles, but most people are more than happy shopping at Walmart. I get what you're saying, but do you define the ecological age as a fad or something that becomes a persistent and growing part of the social consciousness? Going back to scarcity, you could quite reasonably say a poor farmer in Africa would sooner go for what is affordable but if the cheaper product ultimately destroys his own capacity to produce, by way of pollution or key resource availability, then economic factors can change in order of importance. As more people buy eco-friendly products, whether real or bullshit, they're making a similar decision even though their connection to the environment is more abstract. A short fad in 2070 decides that vat grown meat is better for the environment, and boom so much for the organic cattle farmers. But the same effect is in play - first a transition is made from standard farming practices to more ecologically friendly meat production, and then to the obvious conclusion that we eventually stop killing animals for food (or abate the practice dramatically). I see it as an ongoing narrative, not one fad to the next.
        ArkyBeagle 11y ago
        It could be that it's just more and more narrowcasting - "real" meat becomes a hobby product consumed by enthusiasts ala microbrews and cigars. You can't get my kids to eat corned beef and cabbage; I looked forward to it when made by my family. That's interesting - I hadn't considered the dialogue aspect of it before. That's a good way to look at it. I suspect the guys in the poorer regions will be teaching us sustainability w.r.t farming. There were no small purple potatoes when I was a kid; I am glad they are there now. That's clearly a craft product. Since I don't have to eat potatoes like an 1820s person from Ireland, it's win-win.
runamok 11y ago
Actually I think a self driving car might be better at driving on slippery roads than most humans. Detect any wheel slip, vehicle yaw, etc. and immediately take action. Not to mention being better at simple rules like 'when temp is below freezing lower speed by 10 mph'.
- zzalpha 11y ago
  Eventually, yes. Unfortunately current vision systems don't cope well with obscured roads, or even precipitation. My guess is that'll take changes to infrastructure. With snow packed roads you simply can't see lines on the road and so need some other type of telemetry.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
blumkvist 11y ago
I've watched that video too and it is based on false premises. I work in an area that is at the forefront of automation and algorithms - marketing and I actually make those automation and algorithms happen. They will never ever replace humans. All of it is simple input-output program. There is no "artificial intelligence". There is only automating tasks. And before you start protesting that the employers will simply dispose of the people who used to perform those tasks let me tell you that nothing of the sorts will happen. The humans will simply start performing other tasks. Using those algorithms and automations in their decision making. There is just a shift of the paradigm in what constitutes marketing or sales work, not obliteration of employment. In fact, employment ins skyrocketing. Required skills are shifting, but that is to be expected. Now if you talk about clerks at the fast food chains and big box retailers - some of those will be gone, yes. But not nearly as many as you might think. My analogy is very carefully chosen. Think about it for a second. Or more than a second.

by zzalpha 11y ago

mey 11y ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

icanhackit 11y ago

> I have no doubt that humans will get automated out of work in the fullness of time. The trend I see emerging in offices is emotional and social commitment becoming the primary form of labor. This may be one of the forms of work that persists in a highly automated society.

ArkyBeagle 11y ago
I can't help but think that for one, that has to be ephemeral, and two, it can't last. Those at least sound expensive, and at some point, firms which don't need it will rise. I personally think the chattering classes bent that "Emotional Quotient" thing into common usage after the Bell Curve and this article is just more of that. Don't get me wrong; the EQ stuff is important but it's not likely to be what some writers think it is.
- icanhackit 11y ago
  > Those at least sound expensive, and at some point, firms which don't need it will rise. Perhaps, but if we look at things like organically produced goods, fair-trade etc it shows that in post-scarcity societies emotion and ecology play a large part in purchasing decisions. Even ethical investing aka socially responsible investing is a big thing. With that in mind, does the cheaper, wholly automated firm beat out the warm-fuzzy partially-human-crafted yet more expensive equivalent? I think it will depend on scarcity.
  - Retric 11y ago
    People with massive disposable incomes care for intangibles, but most people are more than happy shopping at Walmart. The important thing to remember is signaling shapes behavior, but culture is always in flux. Young men in the 60's suddenly decided it was ok to have long hair, and suddenly lot's of barber shops went out of business. A short fad in 2070 decides that vat grown meat is better for the environment, and boom so much for the organic cattle farmers.
    - icanhackit 11y ago
      People with massive disposable incomes care for intangibles, but most people are more than happy shopping at Walmart. I get what you're saying, but do you define the ecological age as a fad or something that becomes a persistent and growing part of the social consciousness? Going back to scarcity, you could quite reasonably say a poor farmer in Africa would sooner go for what is affordable but if the cheaper product ultimately destroys his own capacity to produce, by way of pollution or key resource availability, then economic factors can change in order of importance. As more people buy eco-friendly products, whether real or bullshit, they're making a similar decision even though their connection to the environment is more abstract. A short fad in 2070 decides that vat grown meat is better for the environment, and boom so much for the organic cattle farmers. But the same effect is in play - first a transition is made from standard farming practices to more ecologically friendly meat production, and then to the obvious conclusion that we eventually stop killing animals for food (or abate the practice dramatically). I see it as an ongoing narrative, not one fad to the next.
      - ArkyBeagle 11y ago
        It could be that it's just more and more narrowcasting - "real" meat becomes a hobby product consumed by enthusiasts ala microbrews and cigars. You can't get my kids to eat corned beef and cabbage; I looked forward to it when made by my family. That's interesting - I hadn't considered the dialogue aspect of it before. That's a good way to look at it. I suspect the guys in the poorer regions will be teaching us sustainability w.r.t farming. There were no small purple potatoes when I was a kid; I am glad they are there now. That's clearly a craft product. Since I don't have to eat potatoes like an 1820s person from Ireland, it's win-win.

runamok 11y ago

Actually I think a self driving car might be better at driving on slippery roads than most humans. Detect any wheel slip, vehicle yaw, etc. and immediately take action. Not to mention being better at simple rules like 'when temp is below freezing lower speed by 10 mph'.

zzalpha 11y ago
Eventually, yes. Unfortunately current vision systems don't cope well with obscured roads, or even precipitation. My guess is that'll take changes to infrastructure. With snow packed roads you simply can't see lines on the road and so need some other type of telemetry.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

blumkvist 11y ago

I've watched that video too and it is based on false premises. I work in an area that is at the forefront of automation and algorithms - marketing and I actually make those automation and algorithms happen. They will never ever replace humans. All of it is simple input-output program. There is no "artificial intelligence". There is only automating tasks. And before you start protesting that the employers will simply dispose of the people who used to perform those tasks let me tell you that nothing of the sorts will happen. The humans will simply start performing other tasks. Using those algorithms and automations in their decision making. There is just a shift of the paradigm in what constitutes marketing or sales work, not obliteration of employment. In fact, employment ins skyrocketing. Required skills are shifting, but that is to be expected. Now if you talk about clerks at the fast food chains and big box retailers - some of those will be gone, yes. But not nearly as many as you might think. My analogy is very carefully chosen. Think about it for a second. Or more than a second.