I like all that except for the odds part. If the odds are calculated across the whole population of (say) high school athletes, the odds are pretty meaningless.

I like all that except for the odds part. If the odds are calculated across the whole population of (say) high school athletes, the odds are pretty meaningless. As you say above, you have to select for height, so calculating the odds of playing in the NBA professionally for a population where 95% of the people are 5'10" or below is just silly. The odds are going to be astronomically low because of height alone.