4 ms·

I did some back-of-the-envelope math for soccer and both for Canada and England, given the number of kids playing and the number of professionals, the odds of g

by lazyant 11y ago

I did some back-of-the-envelope math for soccer and both for Canada and England, given the number of kids playing and the number of professionals, the odds of going pro is about 1 in 10,000.

exelius 11y ago
And by far the most important factor in making a professional league is genetics. Height is the biggest X factor in sports, and nearly every position in sports favors players who are taller and have longer limbs (yeah, yeah, strikers in soccer and NFL running backs can be short as long as they're incredibly quick). At the pro level, every player is coached to play as close to their maximum potential as is physically possible. All things held equal, a taller player simply has a greater maximum potential. Colt McCoy is one of my favorite examples. Coming out of college, he was a prototypical NFL pocket passer: he made smart decisions, had a quick release, was incredibly accurate, had great presence in the pocket and was deceptively fast when he had to pull it down and run. But he's been a career backup because he's only 6'1", and for various reasons, it's hard to be a franchise NFL quarterback under 6'4". If you look at all the best quarterbacks in the last 20 years, nearly every one is 6'4" or taller [1]. While there are a couple exceptions (namely, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees) nearly every single "marquee" quarterback still playing today is 6'4" or taller. If Colt McCoy were 3 inches taller, he would almost certainly be a starter in the NFL today. Imagine how much better Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees would have been if they were 3 inches taller. 6'4" is really tall. In the US, that puts you into the top 1% of height for males. [2] So not only do you have to be really good at the sport, but being really good at the sport essentially requires you to be in the top 1% of the country in physical size before you even pick up a ball. I knew a kid in middle school who was 6'4" and everyone knew he was going to end up in the NBA. And he did -- for like 4 seasons before his knees gave out. But those are the kids who go pro -- everyone they've known since the age of 12 or so has been telling them they'll go pro because they were always the biggest, best player on every team they ever played on. The odds for any given kid playing pro sports are probably much closer to zero than anyone wants to admit. Those odds only improve if the kid's parents are tall -- and even then only if the kid ends up being tall, in shape, with no genetic weaknesses in connective tissue that would cause too many injuries before they hit the pro level. [1] http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tall-task-does-height-matter-for-nfl-quarterbacks/22067/ http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tall-task-does-... [2] http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr010.pdf http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr010.pdf, page 16
- Domenic_S 11y ago
  I like all that except for the odds part. If the odds are calculated across the whole population of (say) high school athletes, the odds are pretty meaningless. As you say above, you have to select for height, so calculating the odds of playing in the NBA professionally for a population where 95% of the people are 5'10" or below is just silly. The odds are going to be astronomically low because of height alone.

by lazyant 11y ago

I did some back-of-the-envelope math for soccer and both for Canada and England, given the number of kids playing and the number of professionals, the odds of going pro is about 1 in 10,000.

exelius 11y ago

And by far the most important factor in making a professional league is genetics. Height is the biggest X factor in sports, and nearly every position in sports favors players who are taller and have longer limbs (yeah, yeah, strikers in soccer and NFL running backs can be short as long as they're incredibly quick). At the pro level, every player is coached to play as close to their maximum potential as is physically possible. All things held equal, a taller player simply has a greater maximum potential. Colt McCoy is one of my favorite examples. Coming out of college, he was a prototypical NFL pocket passer: he made smart decisions, had a quick release, was incredibly accurate, had great presence in the pocket and was deceptively fast when he had to pull it down and run. But he's been a career backup because he's only 6'1", and for various reasons, it's hard to be a franchise NFL quarterback under 6'4". If you look at all the best quarterbacks in the last 20 years, nearly every one is 6'4" or taller [1]. While there are a couple exceptions (namely, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees) nearly every single "marquee" quarterback still playing today is 6'4" or taller. If Colt McCoy were 3 inches taller, he would almost certainly be a starter in the NFL today. Imagine how much better Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees would have been if they were 3 inches taller. 6'4" is really tall. In the US, that puts you into the top 1% of height for males. [2] So not only do you have to be really good at the sport, but being really good at the sport essentially requires you to be in the top 1% of the country in physical size before you even pick up a ball. I knew a kid in middle school who was 6'4" and everyone knew he was going to end up in the NBA. And he did -- for like 4 seasons before his knees gave out. But those are the kids who go pro -- everyone they've known since the age of 12 or so has been telling them they'll go pro because they were always the biggest, best player on every team they ever played on. The odds for any given kid playing pro sports are probably much closer to zero than anyone wants to admit. Those odds only improve if the kid's parents are tall -- and even then only if the kid ends up being tall, in shape, with no genetic weaknesses in connective tissue that would cause too many injuries before they hit the pro level. [1] http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tall-task-does-height-matter-for-nfl-quarterbacks/22067/ http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tall-task-does-... [2] http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr010.pdf http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr010.pdf, page 16

Domenic_S 11y ago
I like all that except for the odds part. If the odds are calculated across the whole population of (say) high school athletes, the odds are pretty meaningless. As you say above, you have to select for height, so calculating the odds of playing in the NBA professionally for a population where 95% of the people are 5'10" or below is just silly. The odds are going to be astronomically low because of height alone.