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The same question is being asked about the Airbus A380, and the A350 is also way over budget and behind schedule. I suspect it's a matter of time until a Chine

The same question is being asked about the Airbus A380, and the A350 is also way over budget and behind schedule. I suspect it's a matter of time until a Chinese manufacturer ramps up and stomps all over the current airplane market with cheap yet perfectly serviceable planes. Anecdote: A few years back, I flew on a Xian MA60, a perfectly serviceable commuter turboprop that's technically a descendant of the venerable Soviet Antonov An-24 but in practice competes agains the ATR-42. A small detail that weirded me out is how the garish livery on the seats inside looks exactly like the one used in Chinese buses... which have also essentially obliterated Western companies' bus sales in large swathes of Asia. http://www.patokallio.name/photo/travel/Laos/LaoAirlines/LaoAirlines_MA60_Exterior.JPG http://www.patokallio.name/photo/travel/Laos/LaoAirlines/Lao... http://www.patokallio.name/photo/travel/Laos/LaoAirlines/LaoAirlines_MA60_Interior.JPG http://www.patokallio.name/photo/travel/Laos/LaoAirlines/Lao... The MA60's current customer list is a wacky but wide collection of obscure outfits (Air Burundi, Lao Airlines, Boliviana...): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_MA60#Customer_summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_MA60#Customer_summary So what's the market going to look like when planes like the 737 clone Comac C919 start ramping up? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919

christoph 11y ago
Hopefully a bit less accident prone... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_MA60#Accidents_and_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_MA60#Accidents_and_incide... Not sure of it's current state, but it was denied UK & US certification on the basis of technical flaws last I heard.
- ams6110 11y ago
  To be fair, most of those accidents seem to be pilot error of one sort or another, perhaps more a critique of airline competency in that part of the world, rather than the aircraft itself.
  - yread 11y ago
    Well on other planes a pilot error causing a hard landing usually doesn't end up with the wings falling off. Extended list of accidents and incidents: http://www.avherald.com/h?search_term=ma60&opt=0&dosearch=1&search.x=0&search.y=0 http://www.avherald.com/h?search_term=ma60&opt=0&dosearch=1&...
notahacker 11y ago
I'm not sure that Airbus and Boeing have much to fear from the C919, though I'm sure it'll sell well enough in China. Aircraft purchasers are conservative, and they're much more concerned about operating costs, reliability, availability of third party maintenance and type-rated pilots and residual values than they are about acquisition costs, with the 737 and A320 enjoying massive brand and network effects. You only have to look at the struggles of the Sukhoi Superjet to find buyers outside Russia for what is reportedly a very decent modern aircraft. It's also a racing certainty that COMAC will suffer similar if not worse problems with delays and complications to the programme. Launching all-new aircraft is hard even when you have substantial expertise in doing it. The A380 is failing for a different reason: there just isn't the level of demand for an aircraft of that size to make the programme viable.
- ubernostrum 11y ago
  Another important point is how many airlines have standardized their narrow-body fleets. Maintaining a single type/family is simpler and often cheaper than having trained crew, mechanics and parts available for multiple types of aircraft. In the US, for example, Southwest and (mainline) Alaska are both pure-737 fleets. Virgin America, Frontier and Spirit are all A320-family, with JetBlue operating only A320 family and the E190. US Airways, prior to its merger with American, was moving toward an all-A320-family narrow-body fleet and was nearly there (only a few 757s were left, and US Airways was looking to replace them with a long-range variant of the A321 once it became available). So a new narrow-body type -- whether it's COMAC's C919 or Bombardier's C-Series -- probably will never make it into those carriers' fleets, which in turn makes it that much harder to break into the market. Added to that, the existing manufacturers (Airbus and Boeing) are established enough and have the resources to be able to offer significant discounts to an airline which commits to a large fleet overhaul. New entrants likely are not financially able to do that, putting them at more of a disadvantage in trying to place their first aircraft with the airlines.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
  - caf 11y ago
caf 11y ago
There's talk that the Bombardier CSeries program is in trouble, too.

christoph 11y ago

Hopefully a bit less accident prone... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_MA60#Accidents_and_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_MA60#Accidents_and_incide... Not sure of it's current state, but it was denied UK & US certification on the basis of technical flaws last I heard.

ams6110 11y ago
To be fair, most of those accidents seem to be pilot error of one sort or another, perhaps more a critique of airline competency in that part of the world, rather than the aircraft itself.
- yread 11y ago
  Well on other planes a pilot error causing a hard landing usually doesn't end up with the wings falling off. Extended list of accidents and incidents: http://www.avherald.com/h?search_term=ma60&opt=0&dosearch=1&search.x=0&search.y=0 http://www.avherald.com/h?search_term=ma60&opt=0&dosearch=1&...

notahacker 11y ago

I'm not sure that Airbus and Boeing have much to fear from the C919, though I'm sure it'll sell well enough in China. Aircraft purchasers are conservative, and they're much more concerned about operating costs, reliability, availability of third party maintenance and type-rated pilots and residual values than they are about acquisition costs, with the 737 and A320 enjoying massive brand and network effects. You only have to look at the struggles of the Sukhoi Superjet to find buyers outside Russia for what is reportedly a very decent modern aircraft. It's also a racing certainty that COMAC will suffer similar if not worse problems with delays and complications to the programme. Launching all-new aircraft is hard even when you have substantial expertise in doing it. The A380 is failing for a different reason: there just isn't the level of demand for an aircraft of that size to make the programme viable.

ubernostrum 11y ago
Another important point is how many airlines have standardized their narrow-body fleets. Maintaining a single type/family is simpler and often cheaper than having trained crew, mechanics and parts available for multiple types of aircraft. In the US, for example, Southwest and (mainline) Alaska are both pure-737 fleets. Virgin America, Frontier and Spirit are all A320-family, with JetBlue operating only A320 family and the E190. US Airways, prior to its merger with American, was moving toward an all-A320-family narrow-body fleet and was nearly there (only a few 757s were left, and US Airways was looking to replace them with a long-range variant of the A321 once it became available). So a new narrow-body type -- whether it's COMAC's C919 or Bombardier's C-Series -- probably will never make it into those carriers' fleets, which in turn makes it that much harder to break into the market. Added to that, the existing manufacturers (Airbus and Boeing) are established enough and have the resources to be able to offer significant discounts to an airline which commits to a large fleet overhaul. New entrants likely are not financially able to do that, putting them at more of a disadvantage in trying to place their first aircraft with the airlines.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- caf 11y ago

caf 11y ago

There's talk that the Bombardier CSeries program is in trouble, too.