4 ms·

Will the average Cherokee child consume $80k of police/court/prison services during their lifetime? That's breakeven. Assuming "massive win" means another $80k

Will the average Cherokee child consume $80k of police/court/prison services during their lifetime? That's breakeven. Assuming "massive win" means another $80k of cost savings, that means that absent this intervention, the average Cherokee will cost society $160k over their lifetime. Is this really true? Is the average Cherokee a criminal who spends 3 years in prison (google suggests prison costs a bit under $50k/year)?

ddlatham 11y ago
Agreed that it seems unlikely an average child would grow up to use $80k less in police/court/prison services, but much more persuasive to me would be a case that they produce $80k more value to the rest of society, from less use of such services to paying more taxes, to being better neighbors, employees, employers, and citizens.
- scholia 11y ago
  80k is roughly the cost of jailing one US adult for two years. "In total, 6,899,000 adults were under correctional supervision (probation, parole, jail, or prison) in 2013 – about 2.8% of adults (1 in 35) in the U.S. resident population." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_St...
jessedhillon 11y ago
That analysis is too linear. As a basic rebuttal, supposing some small percentage of Cherokee children is averted from a path of violent crime, the reduction in violent crime brings an outsized benefit (especially to would-be victims) which is worth the cost. You're looking at the middle of curve, and ignoring the narrowing of the extreme bottom. And presumably the entire curve is shifting to the right, so there's gradual gains at the extreme top as well.
Riseed 11y ago
First, I don't think "cost to society" is something that can currently be precisely calculated by a balance sheet. What's the "cost" or "savings" from x hours of y humans suffering (or not)? Secondly, going on math alone, you're missing many variables: the (taxed) income of the free individual, hours volunteered, money donated, "positive influence" ripple effect, etc.
Avshalom 11y ago
According to Wikipedia US human lives are valued at 50-100k a year so if it provides the equivalent of 2 good years above what they would have otherwise it's plus.
barrkel 11y ago
Will the average Cherokee child consume $80k of police/court/prison services during their lifetime? That's breakeven You can't talk about "breakeven" without considering opportunity cost of not taking the choice - in this case, taxes and other returns that better outcomes would produce. It doesn't take much increase in outcomes to arrive with a benefit worth $80k over a whole lifetime.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]

ddlatham 11y ago

Agreed that it seems unlikely an average child would grow up to use $80k less in police/court/prison services, but much more persuasive to me would be a case that they produce $80k more value to the rest of society, from less use of such services to paying more taxes, to being better neighbors, employees, employers, and citizens.

scholia 11y ago
80k is roughly the cost of jailing one US adult for two years. "In total, 6,899,000 adults were under correctional supervision (probation, parole, jail, or prison) in 2013 – about 2.8% of adults (1 in 35) in the U.S. resident population." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_St...

jessedhillon 11y ago

That analysis is too linear. As a basic rebuttal, supposing some small percentage of Cherokee children is averted from a path of violent crime, the reduction in violent crime brings an outsized benefit (especially to would-be victims) which is worth the cost. You're looking at the middle of curve, and ignoring the narrowing of the extreme bottom. And presumably the entire curve is shifting to the right, so there's gradual gains at the extreme top as well.

Riseed 11y ago

First, I don't think "cost to society" is something that can currently be precisely calculated by a balance sheet. What's the "cost" or "savings" from x hours of y humans suffering (or not)? Secondly, going on math alone, you're missing many variables: the (taxed) income of the free individual, hours volunteered, money donated, "positive influence" ripple effect, etc.

Avshalom 11y ago

According to Wikipedia US human lives are valued at 50-100k a year so if it provides the equivalent of 2 good years above what they would have otherwise it's plus.

barrkel 11y ago

Will the average Cherokee child consume $80k of police/court/prison services during their lifetime? That's breakeven You can't talk about "breakeven" without considering opportunity cost of not taking the choice - in this case, taxes and other returns that better outcomes would produce. It doesn't take much increase in outcomes to arrive with a benefit worth $80k over a whole lifetime.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]