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With the assumption that hydrogen is indeed "Fool cells", some possibilities for why Toyota may still be pursuing it (not necessarily in any order. Largely list
by addicted 11y ago
With the assumption that hydrogen is indeed "Fool cells", some possibilities for why Toyota may still be pursuing it (not necessarily in any order. Largely listing for discussion and for thinking about later in more depth).
1) Japanese govt. incentives are sufficient to push Toyota and other Japanese companies to try and make Hydrogen work.
2) It's a conspiracy between car companies and oil companies (I don't see how this can work because I don't see how car companies benefit.)
3) Car companies don't like the fact that EVs have lower maintenance, because a large chunk of their profits comes from maintenance and repairs.
4) Car companies are basically behaving like Blackberry after the iPhone. Their current model works, and being incumbents, they find it hard to imagine a world that does not work like the current one.
5) EVs would be too much of a revolution and they would essentially lose all their incumbent advantages. FCV basically follow the same model and so they allow incumbent car companies to better fend off new entrants than if EVs became popular (I find it interesting that all the new entrants are EV manufacturers or rumored to be making EVs (Apple)).
Any other ideas?
Personally, I think #s 4 and 5 (both of which are basically blindness caused by incumbency) are the biggest factors. This is bolstered by this Toyota quote in the article:
“You may think 35 years is a long time,” Senior Managing Officer Kiyotaka Ise told reporters. “But for an automaker to envision all combustion engines as gone is pretty extraordinary.”
The way Japanese manufacturers seem to be the only ones who are so uniquely focused on hydrogen, however, seems to indicate that Japanese policy is also playing a large role.
- petra 11y agoAlso: even if fuel cells won't be needed for most vehicles, i could see how it would fit heavy equipment, trucks, etc . And maybe that all that will be left from their industry and they're just preparing for that?
- toomuchtodo 11y agoUnfortunately, hydrogen doesn't have the energy density required for trucks. They'll need to move to natural gas or biodiesel until batteries catch up.
- petra 11y agoAre you sure ? there's a startup working exactly on hydrogen storage for trucks: http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2011/04/18/asemblon-forging-ahead-with-hydrogen-fuel-dream-leans-on-partners-to-make-it-happen/?single_page=true http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2011/04/18/asemblon-forging-a...
- toomuchtodo 11y ago> Cryo-compressed hydrogen stations cost about $2.1 million apiece today, while Asemblon figures that stations using its form of hydrogen fuel would cost about one-tenth as much. Even if you get the cost down to $200K for a cryo-hydrogen fueling station, you still need to make the hydrogen from natural gas (which you could just burn in the first place) or from electrolysis (which is terribly inefficient). You'll see natural gas truck powerplants long before you see hydrogen versions. Natural gas fueling stations are very inexpensive and straightforward where there is natgas infrastructure already run.
- petra 11y agoYes, but long term will natural gas be used, instead of clean alternatives?
- toomuchtodo 11y agoUntil a clean alternative can be found that can provide the energy density heavy trucks require.
- maxerickson 11y agoNat gas is state of the industry tech: https://www.freightlinertrucks.com/Trucks/Alternative-Power-Trucks/Natural-Gas/ https://www.freightlinertrucks.com/Trucks/Alternative-Power-...
- WorldMaker 11y agoThis seems similar to how focused the American car companies in the 90s and Oughts seemed on Hydrogen Fuel Cells: a lot of it just seemed to be perverse market incentives, including Government research grants, to build proofs of concept HFC vehicles with no actual practicality. That said, at least it doesn't seem to be all Japanese manufacturers as thus far Nissan seems to be fairly transparent that they are focused on electric vehicles.
- _rpd 11y agoOne theory is that Japan's methane hydrate resources [1] give them the opportunity to become at least energy independent, if not a net energy exporter. For a traditionally resource-poor nation, this is an attractive prospect, but it requires the adoption of hydrogen as a fuel, so the Japanese government is strongly encouraging it. Another theory is that Toyota has done the math and decided that they can't compete with China on EVs (e.g., see [2]) and so are looking for a different game to win. [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/business/global/japan-says-it-is-first-to-tap-methane-hydrate-deposit.html http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/business/global/japan-says... [2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/china-won-t-let-toyota-ditch-its-electric-cars http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/china-won-...