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Peckham is up and coming though, so it seems to have worked to some extent, albeit a year too late.

by robmcm 11y ago

tfgg 11y ago
That's the thing, you'd need to demonstrate how "coffee shop / chicken shop" density correlates with house prices over time, and whether it's a predictor or a lagging indicator. There might be better correlators - art galleries and cocktail bars are probably other good ones, or most effects might be mostly priced in, or house price increases might be mostly related to investment in repairing shoddy properties, etc. etc. I do think it's a cute way for someone who doesn't know London that well to quickly find likely up-and-coming areas, though and a good starting hypothesis.
- robmcm 11y ago
  I could be that often coffee shops take over old chicken shops given the size and locations. In London I have observed that gentrification often stems from students living in a cheap area, they make it cool with lots of bars, pubs, events etc. This attracts graduates, who are typically DINKYs, they then add to the available cash in the area and start buying property. Eventually they have kids and the area becomes more mature and expensive. The area next on the tube/train line is typically next to get gentrified by the graduates: Clapham -> Balham/Clapham Junction, East Dulwich -> Peckham/Brockley/Forest Hill, Shorditch -> Dalston/Hakney, whilst new students pick new areas, influenced by cheap rent.
- willyt 11y ago
  You'd have to filter for 'trendy' ones though. Something like cocktail bars based out of shipping containers on top of abandoned multi-storey car parks or cocktail bars with the same names as businesses at the same address that used to be shoe shops. :-) Something like that...
branchless 11y ago
Peckham was "up and coming" when I was there in 2000. Good luck with that. Just for you: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/london-property-market-boosted-by-people-pretending-grim-places-are-great-2013053070398 http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/london-property-m... "But how would I live without all the art galleries I never visit, my four-hour daily commute, being groped on the Tube, black snot, getting mugged for my iPhone, and my upstairs neighbour’s regular all-night dubstep sessions?" I lived in Peckham. One night I went next door to tell my neighbour to stop playing dance music full volume at 4am. Another time I phoned the police and they would only send someone round when they had enough backup. "Good times".

Peckham is up and coming though, so it seems to have worked to some extent, albeit a year too late.

by robmcm 11y ago

Peckham is up and coming though, so it seems to have worked to some extent, albeit a year too late.

tfgg 11y ago

That's the thing, you'd need to demonstrate how "coffee shop / chicken shop" density correlates with house prices over time, and whether it's a predictor or a lagging indicator. There might be better correlators - art galleries and cocktail bars are probably other good ones, or most effects might be mostly priced in, or house price increases might be mostly related to investment in repairing shoddy properties, etc. etc. I do think it's a cute way for someone who doesn't know London that well to quickly find likely up-and-coming areas, though and a good starting hypothesis.

robmcm 11y ago
I could be that often coffee shops take over old chicken shops given the size and locations. In London I have observed that gentrification often stems from students living in a cheap area, they make it cool with lots of bars, pubs, events etc. This attracts graduates, who are typically DINKYs, they then add to the available cash in the area and start buying property. Eventually they have kids and the area becomes more mature and expensive. The area next on the tube/train line is typically next to get gentrified by the graduates: Clapham -> Balham/Clapham Junction, East Dulwich -> Peckham/Brockley/Forest Hill, Shorditch -> Dalston/Hakney, whilst new students pick new areas, influenced by cheap rent.
willyt 11y ago
You'd have to filter for 'trendy' ones though. Something like cocktail bars based out of shipping containers on top of abandoned multi-storey car parks or cocktail bars with the same names as businesses at the same address that used to be shoe shops. :-) Something like that...

branchless 11y ago

Peckham was "up and coming" when I was there in 2000. Good luck with that. Just for you: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/london-property-market-boosted-by-people-pretending-grim-places-are-great-2013053070398 http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/london-property-m... "But how would I live without all the art galleries I never visit, my four-hour daily commute, being groped on the Tube, black snot, getting mugged for my iPhone, and my upstairs neighbour’s regular all-night dubstep sessions?" I lived in Peckham. One night I went next door to tell my neighbour to stop playing dance music full volume at 4am. Another time I phoned the police and they would only send someone round when they had enough backup. "Good times".