3 ms·
Doing some back of the envelope calculations I can't see any scale where they are profitable given their current fee structure. Could you explain? I'm sure yo
by nkurz 11y ago
Doing some back of the envelope calculations I can't see any scale where they are profitable given their current fee structure.
Could you explain? I'm sure you have much more experience reading such numbers[1] than I do, but at a glance they look viable if they can grow to something around double their size.
Ignoring Starbucks and doubling the amounts for 1H 2015 to make it annual, they'll have about $1000M of revenue from transactions, and will pay about $600M of transaction costs. They'll have about $500M of operating costs for 2015 and $100M of various other costs.
If in 201X they were to be double this size, they'd have $2000M of revenue, and $1200M of transaction costs. If they can keep their operating and other costs below $800M, they'll be profitable. Of their expenses, "Transaction and advance losses" will probably scale linearly, but all the rest plausible to be significantly sublinear.
Is this simplistic scenario clearly impossible for some reason?
[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512673/000119312515343733/d937622ds1.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512673/000119312515...