This is a good analogy in one sense, but I think the probabilities in your example are reversed from the startup case: for high-risk startups, only a few surviv

This is a good analogy in one sense, but I think the probabilities in your example are reversed from the startup case: for high-risk startups, only a few survive, but they're the winners. And of course, that's what makes them better on average for investors (who spread risk across their portfolio) than for founders, who have all their eggs in one basket. As pg says here, as a founder, you want to survive.